000 AXNT20 KNHC 312342 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Tue Jun 1 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 45W, from 01N to 13N, moving westward at 10-15 knots. Scattered moderate convection is limited to the vicinity of the ITCZ from 05N to 08N between 40W and 50W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 63W, from 14N southward, moving westward at 10-15 knots. There is no convection associated with this wave over open waters. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the west coast of Africa near 11N16W to 06N20W. The ITCZ continues from 06N20W to 05N30W where it intercepts a tropical wave. The ITCZ continues from 04N46W to the coast of Brazil near 04N51W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 08N W of 50W. Otherwise, widely scattered moderate convection is from 0N to 14N E of 25W associated with a tropical wave that is starting to move off the coast of Africa. GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure over the eastern CONUS extends a ridge SW to the basin and continue to support mainly gentle to moderate E to SE winds with seas to 4 ft. Over the SW gulf, NE fresh winds are within 60 nm off the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula with seas in the 4-5 ft range. Fresh northeast to east winds will pulse each night off the NW Yucatan Peninsula in association with a diurnal trough. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds are expected elsewhere through the end of the week. CARIBBEAN SEA... High pressure centered over the north central Atlantic extends a ridge south to the Caribbean. The pressure gradient between the ridge and the climatological low pressure over Colombia continue to support moderate to fresh trade winds across the eastern and central Caribbean with seas to 5 ft. Locally strong E to NE winds are within 75 nm of the coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela with seas to 7 ft. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds are noted over the NW Caribbean with seas to 3 ft. Otherwise, an upper level trough extending over the western Caribbean is supporting scattered showers and tstms along Cuba, the Windward Passage and portions of Hispaniola. Fresh trades will continue across the central Caribbean through Tue as high pressure remains in place across the western Atlc. Moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail across much of the basin Tue night through Fri. ATLANTIC OCEAN An upper level trough along the eastern CONUS adjacent waters extending to the western Caribbean continue to support a stationary front that at 21 UTC extends from 31N76W SW to Lake Okeechobee, Florida and a pre-frontal trough from 29N75W to Andros Island. Diffluent flow aloft to the east of the trough supports scattered showers and tstms in the Bahamas and the Great Bahama Bank. Surface high pressure dominates the remainder central and eastern Atlantic waters. For the forecast W of 65W, stationary front extending from 31N77W to Ft. Pierce Florida will weaken through Tue. After the front dissipates, scattered showers and tstms will persist around the Bahamas region this week, as an upper-level low drifts slowly southeastward over the area. High pressure will build gradually westward into the region late tonight through Wed and then prevail through the remainder of the week. Expect moderate to fresh E to SE winds east of 75W and S of 28N Wed through Fri, with gentle winds east of Florida. $$ Ramos