849 AXNT20 KNHC 302055 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Mon May 31 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 40W, from 15N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. No significant convection is observed near this tropical wave. The axis of a tropical wave is near 56W, from 15N southward, moving westward at 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 09N between 55W and 60W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Senegal near 12N16W to 05N25W to 05N30W. Segments of the ITCZ continue from 05N30W to 05N40W, and from 06N41W to 05N51W. Aside from convection mentioned in the tropical wave section, there is scattered moderate to isolated strong convection from 02N to 07N between 10W and 20W. GULF OF MEXICO... A weakening cold front extends from near Bradenton, Florida to near Houston, Texas. Moderate NE winds and 2 to 4 ft seas are noted north of this front. Moderate E winds and 2 to 4 ft seas are evident over the southwest Gulf, with light to gentle breezes and 1 to 3 ft are noted elsewhere. More stable air over the western Gulf follows an upper trough reaching from the Florida Panhandle to the southwest Gulf. This is limiting and significant shower or thunderstorm activity, except for a few modest showers over the central Gulf where upper trough intersects warmer waters near the loop current. For the forecast, the eastern portion of the front will drift SE and stall along 27N tonight. Moderate north to northeast winds will prevail behind the front through early afternoon. Fresh northeast to east winds will pulse to strong each night off the Yucatan Peninsula. High pressure north of the basin will prevail Mon through Wed. CARIBBEAN SEA... Weak surface troughs are noted over the Leeward Islands and from eastern Cuba through the southern Bahamas. Despite a strong Bermuda High farther north, this pattern is supporting only moderate to fresh trade winds and 4 to 6 ft seas across the Caribbean basin and 4 to 6 ft seas and over the Gulf of Honduras, except for gentle to moderate SE winds and 2 to 4 ft seas in the northwest Caribbean. A few showers are noted off Costa Rica due to trade wind convergence. Elsewhere, no significant shower or thunderstorm activity is evident. For the forecast, fresh trades across the south central Caribbean will expand slightly northward tonight through Tue as high pressure strengthens modestly across the western Atlc. Fresh winds are expected in the southern Gulf of Honduras tonight. Moderate to fresh tradewinds will prevail basin-wide late Tue through Thu as the Atlc ridge lifts northward along 35N. ATLANTIC OCEAN A weakening cold front extends from 1014 mb low pressure east of Savannah, Georgia to just north of Cape Canaveral, Florida. 1033 mb high pressure over the central Atlantic near 36N40W, dominates the basin. Pressure data hints a weak surface trough may be moving through eastern Cuba and the southern Bahamas, although a concurrent scatterometer satellite pass shows little evidence of a pronounced trough in this area, so it is weak if it exists at all. A negatively tilted upper trough is noted from 30N70W to 25N63W, supporting a few showers from 25N to 30N between 60W and 65W. At the surface, gentle to moderate E to SE winds are evident across the region west of 60W, except for fresh S to SW winds just ahead of the front, with 3 to 5 ft seas in open waters. Farther south, fresh NE to E winds and 8 to 9 ft seas are noted near the tropical wave off French Guiana. In the eastern Atlantic, fresh NE winds and 6 to 8 ft seas are noted west of the Canary Islands. Moderate NE to E winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are noted elsewhere. For the forecast west of 65W, the cold front off the coast of north Florida will shift slightly southeastward today before stalling tonight. High pressure will build gradually westward into the region late Mon through Wed. $$ Christensen