000 AXNT20 KNHC 291736 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sat May 29 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1630 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 34W, from 15N southward, moving westward around 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N to 07N between 27W and 36W. The system has no significant surface signature, and is primarily tracked by GFS- based 700 mb trough diagnostics. The axis of a tropical wave has been relocated to near 57W, from 15N southward, moving westward around 15 knots. No deep convection is noted in association with the wave. The system has no significant surface signature, and is primarily tracked by GFS-based 700 mb trough diagnostics. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The ITCZ extends from 08N16W to 02N51W along the coast of Brazil. Widespread moderate and scattered strong convection is noted from 03N to 06N east of 25W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N to 07N between 27W and 36W. GULF OF MEXICO... Low pressure and an approaching weak cold front over the SE United States is contributing toward moderate or weaker winds across the Gulf of Mexico today. A squall line over NE Mexico and S Texas has reached the Gulf of Mexico as of 1630 UTC with scattered moderate and isolated strong convection occurring between 25N-28N west of 90W. Seas are 1-2 ft over the E and central Gulf and 3-4 ft over the W Gulf. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail today as the Atlc ridge extends W-SW across central Florida and across the SE Gulf. Fresh northeast to east winds will pulse to strong each night off the Yucatan Peninsula. The weak cold front is expected to sink across the northern Gulf tonight into Sun before stalling along 27N Sun night. Moderate north to northeast winds will develop behind the front through Sun morning. High pressure north of the basin will prevail Mon through Wed. CARIBBEAN SEA... A modest N-S pressure between a surface ridge along 28N and a 1010 mb Colombia Low is causing NE to E moderate to fresh trades over the S central Caribbean. Elsewhere the E trades are gentle. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of 12N in the SW Caribbean in association with the Pacific monsoon trough that extends across Costa Rica to N Colombia. Seas are 4-6 ft over the S central Caribbean and 2-4 ft elsewhere. Fresh trades across the south central Caribbean will remain generally south of 13N through this evening before expanding slightly northward Sun. Fresh winds are expected in the southern Gulf of Honduras each night this weekend. Tradewinds will freshen east of 80W Mon and Tue as high pressure strengthens modestly across the western Atlc. ATLANTIC OCEAN Surface ridging extends from a 1031 mb Bermuda/Azores High near 37N31W west-southwestward to the Florida peninsula. The N-S pressure gradient from the ridge to the ITCZ is forcing NE to E moderate to fresh trades south of 25N. Seas are 6-8 ft south of 23N and 4-6 ft north of 23N. For the forecast west of 65W, moderate to fresh southerly winds will develop off the NE Florida coast tonight ahead of a cold front forecast to emerge off the southeastern CONUS early Sun. The cold front will move across northern Florida on Sun before stalling Sun night. High pressure will build gradually westward into the region late Mon through Wed. For the forecast east of 65W, a building Bermuda/Azores High will force moderate to fresh NE to E trades over all of our waters by Mon night, before weakening again on Tue and Wed. Seas will reach 6-8 ft across all of our forecast waters by Mon night. $$ Landsea/Stripling