000 AXNT20 KNHC 280908 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Fri May 28 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 25W, moving westward at 10 to 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 180 nm of the wave axis from 05N to 07N. The axis of a tropical wave is near 41W, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed from 01N to 07N between 37W and 43W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Guinea near 10N14W, to 08N16W. The ITCZ continues from 08N16W to 06N24W. It resumes from 06N27W to 06N39W, then resumes from 06N43W to 07N57W. Aside from the convection noted in the tropical waves section, scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm of the ITCZ axis. GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure prevails across the Gulf of Mexico, anchored by 1018 mb high pressure over the eastern Gulf near 27N84W. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds prevail in the vicinity of the high center, with gentle to moderate east to southeast winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 3-5 ft range west of 92W, and 1-3 ft east of 92W. The area of high pressure will support gentle to moderate east to southeast winds through Sat night. Fresh northeast to east winds will pulse to strong each night off the Yucatan Peninsula through Sat. A weak cold front is expected to sink across the northern Gulf Sat night into Sun before stalling across the northern Gulf Sun night. Moderate north to northeast winds will prevail behind the front. CARIBBEAN SEA... High pressure prevails north of the Caribbean. Fresh to locally strong winds prevail over the south central Caribbean. Gentle to moderate winds are noted elsewhere. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range over the south central Caribbean, 2-3 ft over the far NW Caribbean, and 4-6 ft elsewhere. Fresh to strong trades across the south central Caribbean will diminish tonight through early next week as high pressure across the SW N Atlc weakens. Fresh winds are expected in the southern Gulf of Honduras each night through the weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN High pressure prevails across the waters north of 20N. Gentle to moderate winds are noted west of the Bahamas, with light to gentle winds elsewhere west of 60W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere north of 20N. In the tropical waters south of 20N, moderate to locally fresh winds are noted. Seas are in the 3-4 ft range west of 60W and 4-6 ft elsewhere north of 20N. South of 20N, seas are in the 6-8 ft range. for the forecast W of 65W, moderate to fresh southerly winds will develop off the NE Florida coast tonight ahead of a cold front forecast to emerge off the southeastern CONUS early Sun. The cold front will move across northern Florida on Sun before stalling Sun night. $$ AL