000 AXNT20 KNHC 280604 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Fri May 28 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0550 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 24W/25W, from 13N southward. The wave is moving westward 15 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 180 nm on either side of the tropical wave, from 05N to 07N. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 40W, from 12N southward, repositioned, moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation: scattered strong is from 03N to 06N, within 220 nm to the east of the tropical wave, and within 180 nm to the west of the tropical wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Guinea near 10N14W, to 07N17W. The ITCZ continues from 07N17W to 06N26W, to 05N42W, 07N53W, to the coastal border area of Guyana and Suriname. Precipitation: scattered strong is within 160 nm to the south of the ITCZ between 36W and 43W. Isolated moderate to locally strong, disorganized, is elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level cyclonic circulation center is in the east central Gulf of Mexico, about 150 nm to the west of Lake Okeechobee in south Florida. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico from 88W eastward, and across Florida. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor satellite imagery, between 83W and 90W, and from 20N to 26N from 90W westward. Broken to overcast multilayered convective debris clouds cover Mexico and Texas, from 24N northward, and within 120 nm of the Texas Gulf coast. A surface ridge passes through an Atlantic Ocean 1020 mb high pressure center that is near 29N75W about 210 nm to the NE of the NW Bahamas, across Florida, into the central Gulf of Mexico, to the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Gentle to moderate east to southeast winds are expected through Sat night, as weak high pressure off the NE Florida coast extends westward to SE Texas and gradually weakens. Fresh northeast to east winds will pulse to strong each night, off the Yucatan Peninsula, through Sat. A weak cold front is expected to sink across the northern Gulf from Sat night into Sun, then stall across the northern Gulf on Sun night. Expect moderate north to northeast winds behind the front. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level trough extends from a 27N61W cyclonic circulation center, toward the Mona Passage. Precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 13N northward from 70W eastward. The monsoon trough passes through Colombia near 11N74W, through 08N80W in Panama, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is in Colombia, within 45 nm to 90 nm on either side of the monsoon trough, between 74W and the Colombia/Panama border. Scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is within 120 nm of the west coast of Colombia from 03N to 07N. Scattered strong is in parts of the western Lake Maracaibo of NW Venezuela. Broken to overcast low level clouds, and isolated moderate rainshowers, cover the rest of the Caribbean Sea. The clouds and isolated moderate precipitation are moving with the surface-to-low level wind flow. The scatterometer winds show that fresh-to strong NE winds are within 150 nm of the coasts of Venezuela and Colombia, including in the Gulf of Venezuela, between 70W and 75W. Sea heights that are ranging from 6 feet to 8 feet are within 400 nm of the coast of Colombia from 73W westward. Fresh to strong NE winds are in the Windward Passage. The sea heights are reaching 4 feet in the Windward Passage. Fresh to strong trade winds in the south central sections of the Caribbean Sea will diminish, from Friday through early next week, as high pressure in the SW N Atlantic Ocean weakens. Fresh winds are expected in the southern Gulf of Honduras each night through the weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN An upper level trough extends from a 27N61W cyclonic circulation center, toward the Mona Passage. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery from Puerto Rico to 24N between 59W and 70W. A surface trough is along 63W/64W from 18N in the NE Caribbean Sea to 29N. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 330 nm of the center in the E quadrant. A surface ridge passes through an Atlantic Ocean 1020 mb high pressure center that is near 29N75W about 210 nm to the NE of the NW Bahamas, across Florida, into the central Gulf of Mexico. A dissipating cold front extends from 31N25W to 29N43W. Precipitation: rainshowers are possible within 60 nm to 120 nm on either side of the frontal boundary. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward between 35W and 60W. Scatterometer data show: fresh to strong NE winds cover the area that is from 08N to 11N between 55W and 58W. Sea heights are 8 feet in that same area. Moderate to fresh southerly winds will develop off the NE Florida coast, on Friday night, in advance of a cold front that is forecast to emerge off the southeastern CONUS early on Sunday. The cold front will move across northern Florida on Sunday, before stalling on Sunday night. $$ mt/JA