000
AXNT20 KNHC 272317
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Fri May 28 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A wave is along 23W south of 13N. It is moving westward at 15 to
20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted
where the wave meets the ITCZ. 

Another tropical wave is along 43W south of 12N. It is moving 
westward at 15 to 20 kt. Dry air surrounds the wave, and
convection is mainly associated with the ITCZ axis. Fresh NE 
winds are noted ahead of the wave axis per scatterometer data. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea Bissau 
near 12N16W to 06N20W. ITCZ extends from 06N26W to 03N40W, 
breaks for a tropical wave along 43W, then continues again from 
05N45W to along the coast of French Guiana. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is from 02N-06N between 10W-50W. 

GULF OF MEXICO...

A ridge dominates the Gulf waters producing mainly gentle to
moderate E to SE winds. Seas are 1-3 ft across the eastern half
of the Gulf, and 3-5 ft based on altimeter data across the
western part of the Gulf. Only a few showers are noted across 
the basin.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate east to southeast winds are
expected through Sat night as weak high pressure off the NE 
Florida coast extends westward to SE Texas and gradually weakens.
Fresh northeast to east winds will pulse nightly to strong off 
the Yucatan Peninsula through Sat. A weak cold front is expected 
to sink across the northern Gulf Sat night into Sun, then stall 
across the northern Gulf Sun night. Expect moderate north to 
northeast winds behind the front. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between a 1022 mb high pressure located E 
of Florida and the Colombian low is contributing to fresh to 
strong NE to E trades over the south-central Caribbean based on 
latest satellite derived wind data. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh 
trades prevail with the exception of gentle to moderate winds in 
the NW Caribbean. Shallow moisture embedded in the trade winds 
flow is noted across the area with some convective activity, 
mainly due to local effects, across parts of the Greater Antilles.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring over northern 
Colombia and most of Panama likely in association with the 
eastern Pacific monsoon trough. Seas are 6-9 ft in the S central 
Caribbean and 3-6 ft elsewhere.

As for the forecast: Fresh to strong trades across the south-central
portions of the Caribbean will diminish significantly Fri through
early next week as high pressure across the SW N Atlantic weakens.
Fresh winds are expected in the southern Gulf of Honduras each 
night through the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN

A ridge dominates the Atlantic forecast waters with a 1028 mb
high pressure located between the Azores and Bermuda near 37N37W,
and a 1022 mb high pressure situated E of Florida. In between,
there is a trough along 65W N of 23N. This trough is associated 
with an upper-level low spinning near 28N62W. Scattered showers 
with embedded thunderstorms are noted on the SE side of the low 
and mainly from 23N-27N between 58W-63W. A weakening cold front 
enters the forecast region near 31N25W and continues SW to near 
29N35W. Mainly low clouds are associated with the frontal 
boundary.

Based on scatterometer data, moderate to fresh trades are noted 
roughly S of 15N and W 30W with seas of 7-9 ft. Fresh to strong 
northerly winds are from 17N to 21N between the W coast of Africa
and 18W. Seas of 6-8 ft are between the W coast of Africa and 
the Cabo Verde Islands. 

In the forecast for west of 65W, light winds will prevail north 
of 24N this evening as a weak trough along 65W interrupts the 
Atlantic ridge. Fri night, moderate to fresh southerly winds will
develop off the NE Florida coast ahead of a cold front forecast 
to emerge off the southeastern CONUS early Sun. The cold front 
will move across northern Florida on Sun before stalling Sun 
night. 

In the forecast for east of 65W, the Bermuda-Azores High will 
move eastward toward the Azores by Fri night as a cold front 
moves off the eastern seaboard. 

$$
GR