000 AXNT20 KNHC 270926 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Thu May 27 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0915 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 18W, from 12N southward. The wave is moving westward 15-20 kt. Precipitation: scattered strong convection is within 210 nm to the west of the tropical wave, from 02N to 04N. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 34W/35W, from 10N southward, moving westward 15-20 kt. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 03N to 05N between 30W-35W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough remains inland in Africa. The ITCZ is along 03N/04N between 20W and 31W. The ITCZ also is along 04N/05N between 34W and the coast of French Guiana along 52W. Precipitation: scattered strong is within 60 nm to the north of the ITCZ between 41W-55W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 180 nm to the south of the ITCZ between 41W- 52W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere within 120 nm on either side of the rest of the ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... An upper-level trough passes through SE Louisiana, to the northern part of the coast of Mexico along 23N. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor satellite imagery. Separate upper-level SW wind flow is cutting across the southernmost parts of the upper level trough. A surface ridge passes through an Atlantic Ocean 1023 mb high pressure center that is near 29N79W, across Florida, to 29N88W in the north central Gulf of Mexico, to the coast of Mexico near 21N98W in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. A surface trough passes through 17N97W in southern Mexico, through the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico, to the Yucatan Peninsula. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is inland in Mexico, and in the coastal waters off the coast of the NW Yucatan Peninsula, from the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico to the Yucatan Peninsula. The scatterometer winds show that fresh NE winds are within 90 nm of the coast of Mexico, near the Yucatan Peninsula, between 89W-92W. The sea heights of 5 ft are from 20N to 22N between 91W- 93W. Gentle to moderate east to southeast winds are expected through Saturday night, as weak high pressure off the NE Florida coast extends westward to SE Texas, and gradually weakens. Fresh northeast to east winds will pulse to strong, nightly, off the Yucatan Peninsula, from tonight through Saturday. A cold front is expected to move across the northern Gulf of Mexico, from Sat night into Sun, then stall across the northern Gulf on Sun night. Expect moderate north to northeast winds behind the front. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper-level trough extends from an Atlantic Ocean 28N64W cyclonic circulation center, to Hispaniola, to 15N75W in the Caribbean Sea. No significant deep convective precipitation is apparent in satellite imagery. The monsoon trough passes through Colombia near 11N74W, through Colombia and Panama to 09N80W, beyond southern Costa Rica, and into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is in Colombia from 06N to 08N between 95W-97W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is in interior sections of Panama. Earlier convective precipitation that was happening in Costa Rica has been dissipating with time. Convective debris clouds cover the area from 10N to 13N from 80W westward. Broken to overcast low-level clouds, and isolated moderate rainshowers, cover the rest of the Caribbean Sea. The clouds and isolated moderate precipitation are moving with the surface to low-level wind flow. The scatterometer winds show that near-gale force NE winds are within 135 nm of the coast of Colombia between 71W-76W. Strong NE winds are within 180 nm to 300 nm of the rest of the coast of Colombia, and NW Venezuela, between 71W-80W. Sea heights that are ranging from 8 to 10 ft are within 380 nm of the coast of Colombia. Fresh NE to E winds are within 60 nm to the north of the coast of Honduras between 86W and 88W. Expect fresh NE winds in the Windward Passage. The sea heights are ranging from 5 to 6 ft off the coast of Honduras and in the Windward Passage. Fresh to strong trades will prevail in the central sections of the Caribbean Sea through early Thursday, as high pressure resides offshore the NE Florida coast. The wind speeds will diminish significantly, from Thu through early next week, as the high collapses. Fresh winds are expected to pulse to strong in the southern Gulf of Honduras and the Windward Passage tonight. ATLANTIC OCEAN An upper level trough extends from a 28N64W cyclonic circulation center, to Hispaniola, to 15N75W in the Caribbean Sea. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery from 15N to 25N between 64W-80W. One surface trough is along 31N64W 27N67W. A second surface trough is along 63W/64W from 18N to 28N. A third surface trough is along 30N53W 28N54W 24N55W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 25N to 30N between 60W-65W. A surface ridge extends from a 1024 mb high pressure center that is near 33N68W, to a 1023 mb high pressure center that is near 29N79W, across Florida, to 29N88W in the north-central Gulf of Mexico. Scatterometer data show: fresh to strong NE winds cover the area that is from 06N to 12N between 45W and 53W. Sea heights that range from 8 to 9 ft are within 500 nm to the north of the ITCZ between 40W-57W. Light winds will prevail north of 24N through Thursday, as weak low pressure just to the east of Bermuda interrupts the Atlantic Ocean ridge. Moderate to locally fresh winds will continue across the Bahamas and Greater Antilles through early Thursday. The winds will become gentle to moderate, from Thu through Sun as the Atlantic Ocean ridge extends from the east central Atlantic Ocean, weakly WSW, to Florida. Friday night: moderate to fresh southerly winds will develop off the NE Florida coast, ahead of a cold front that is forecast to emerge off the southeastern CONUS early on Sun. The cold front will move across northern Florida on Sun, before stalling on Sun night. $$ Aguirre