000
AXNT20 KNHC 251033
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Tue May 25 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1020 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 15W from 11N
southward, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is noted from 03N to 10N between 10W to 18W. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Sierra Leone near 
08N12W to 03N17W. The ITCZ continues from 03N17W to 03N40W to the
coast of Brazil near 01N50W. Outside the convection associated
with the tropical wave, scattered moderate convection is noted
from 01N to 06N between 20W to 40W. 

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough stretches across the Bay of Campeche from 23N91W
to 18N94W. Showers are noted near this feature. A trough also
extends off the west coast of Florida from 30N84W to 27N84W.
Isolated thunderstorms are occurring in the SW Bay of Campeche.
Otherwise, high pressure extends across the Gulf. Moderate to
fresh southeasterly winds prevail throughout most of the Gulf with
light to gentle winds in the NE portion of the basin. Seas are 2
to 5 ft. 

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh return flow will 
dominate most of the Gulf of Mexico through Wed. Gentle to 
moderate east to southeast winds are forecast for the remainder of
the week and into the weekend. Fresh to locally strong easterly 
winds will pulse nightly off the Yucatan Peninsula Tue night 
through Thu night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The monsoon trough stretches across NW Colombia into the eastern
Pacific. This is the focal point for scattered moderate to strong
convection in the SW Caribbean, S of 11N between 75W to 83W. Fresh
to strong trade winds are in the south-central Caribbean with
fresh winds in the Windward Passage and Gulf of Honduras. Seas are
8 to 10 ft in the south-central Caribbean and 4-6 ft elsewhere. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong trades will prevail across the
central and portions of the southwest Caribbean through Wed
night. By Thu, winds will become fresh to locally strong and 
continue through the weekend. Moderate to locally fresh winds are 
expected in the eastern portions of the basin through the rest of
the week. In the northwest Caribbean, fresh winds will dominate 
through Wed and become moderate later in the week. Fresh to strong
winds will pulse at night in the Gulf of Honduras and the 
Windward Passage through Wed night. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1022 mb high pressure sits off the Florida coast near 30N76W.
This is bringing quiescent conditions with light to variable
winds with seas 4 to 5 ft. High pressure also extends across the
eastern and central Atlantic anchored by 1030 mb high NE of the
Azores. Gentle to moderate winds prevail with seas 4 to 6 ft.  

For the forecast west of 65W, light winds will prevail through 
Wed across most of the western Atlantic as high pressure extends 
over the region. Moderate to locally fresh winds will continue 
across the Bahamas and Greater Antilles through Wed night. Winds 
will become gentle to moderate by Thu through the early weekend. 
Toward the end of the week, moderate to fresh southerly winds will
develop off the NE Florida coast ahead of a cold front pushing 
off the southeastern CONUS. 

$$
AReinhart