000 AXNT20 KNHC 241043 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Mon May 24 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1020 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gale Warning: Meteo-France continues to forecast north to northeast gales to strong gales the Agadir region through at least 25/06 UTC. Seas are expected to be rough to very rough in this area. See the High Seas Warning and High Seas Forecast products from Meteo France at weather.gmdss.org/II.html for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea near 09N13W to 08N17W. The ITCZ continues from 08N17W to 05N32W to the coast of Brazil near 04N51W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted west of the ITCZ from 02N to 07N W of 46W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 08N between 16W to 40W. GULF OF MEXICO... A trough stretches across the eastern Bay of Campeche from 24N89W to 19N93W. Scattered moderate convection is along and west of the trough from 20N to 26N between 90W to 95W. Isolated thunderstorms are also adjacent to the middle Texas coast moving inland. Otherwise, high pressure dominates the Gulf anchored by a 1022 high along the Florida Panhandle near 30N86W. Moderate to fresh winds are noted across the basin with light winds in the SW and NE Gulf. Seas range 3 to 6 ft. For the forecast, the ridge will dominate the Gulf waters during the next several days. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds can be expected through Tue night and then gentle to moderate winds the remainder of the forecast period. Fresh to strong winds will pulse nightly off the Yucatan peninsula tonight through Fri night. CARIBBEAN SEA... A trough is noted across the Mona Passage. Isolated showers can be expected along this trough. Scattered moderate to strong convection is near the monsoon trough in the SW Caribbean, S of 12N between 76W to 83W. Isolated thunderstorms are also occurring over the Gulf of Honduras. Strong trade winds are noted in the south- central Caribbean with moderate to fresh winds elsewhere. Seas are up to 8 ft near Colombia with 5 to 7 ft across the rest of the basin. For the forecast, fresh to strong trades will prevail across the south- central Caribbean and the Windward Passage through Wed night as high pressure remains over the western Atlantic. Fresh to strong winds are expected to pulse nightly in the Gulf of Honduras tonight through Wed night. Moderate to fresh trade winds are expected in the lee of Cuba through Tue night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... See the Special Features section above for details on the gale warning near Agadir. A trough extends from the Mona Passage near 19N68W to 27N59W. Scattered moderate convection is east of the trough from 16N to 29N between 50W to 60W. High pressure extends off the western Atlantic anchored by a 1022 mb high near 29N76W. Moderate to fresh winds are noted S of 25N between 70W to 80W. Otherwise, gentle winds prevail across the western Atlantic with seas 4 to 6 ft. High pressure also extends across the central and eastern Atlantic anchored by a 1032 mb high near the Azores. This is supporting gale force winds near Agadir. Moderate to fresh winds are noted across this area of the Atlantic with fresh to strong north- northeasterly winds off the Morocco and Western Sahara coast. Seas 6 to 8 ft are noted in the central Atlantic with 10 to 15 ft off the western African coast. For the forecast for the waters west of 65W, a ridge will dominate the forecast region over the next several days producing moderate to fresh easterly winds S of 25N and gentle to moderate E winds from 25N to 27N. Light and variable winds will prevail elsewhere. $$ AReinhart