000 AXNT20 KNHC 240541 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Mon May 24 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... As of 0300 UTC, Ana has become a post-tropical cyclone centered Near 38.3N 55.2W or 590 nm NE of Bermuda moving NE at 15 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Ana is expected to dissipate later today. Seas to 13 ft are noted within 60 nm in the southeast quadrant and 30 nm in the southwest quadrant. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml for more details. Gale Warning: Meteo-France continues to forecast winds to gale force off Morocco for the Tarfaya area through at least 24/06 UTC and gales to strong gales the Agadir region through at least 25/00 UTC. Meteo-France is also forecasting winds to gale force for the Carnarias area through at least 24/12 UTC. Seas are expected to be rough to very rough in these areas. The gales are due a tight pressure gradient between strong high pressure over the Azores Islands and lower pressure over northwest Africa. See the High Seas Warning and High Seas Forecast products from Meteo France at weather.gmdss.org/II.html for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea near 09N13W to 07N16W. The ITCZ continues from 07N16W to 04N35W to the coast of Brazil near 02N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 08N between 26W and 43W and 49W to 54W. GULF OF MEXICO... Three surface troughs are analyzed over the Gulf of Mexico, one extends westward from central Florida to 24N84W, a second trough along the Yucatan Peninsula, and the third over the western Gulf from 28N92W to 19N93W. The pressure gradient between these troughs and 1022 mb high pressure centered off northeast Florida is supporting generally fresh E to SE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas in a broad swath from northwest Cuba across the central Gulf to the northwest Gulf off Texas. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and 3 to 5 ft persist elsewhere. Scattered showers are noted along the western trough, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection over the Yucatan and eastern Bay of Campeche E of 93W. No significant smoke or haze is noted as well. For the forecast, the ridge will dominate the Gulf waters during the next several days producing moderate to fresh E to SE winds through Tue night, and then gentle to moderate winds the remainder of the forecast period. Fresh to strong winds will pulse nightly off the Yucatan peninsula tonight through Thu night. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper trough extends from west of Bermuda to over the Mona Passage to over the north-central Caribbean south of Hispaniola. Divergence aloft on the eastern side of this trough is supporting clusters of showers and thunderstorms across the Virgin Islands to Guadeloupe. Isolated showers are noted in the trade flow in a few areas around the basin. In the southwestern Caribbean, the Pacific monsoon trough extends westward from a 1007 mb low over Northern Colombia. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is evident south of 11N along the coast of Panama and Costa Rica. Fresh to strong NE to E trade winds with 6 to 8 ft seas are ongoing off Colombia to about 14N. Moderate to fresh trade winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, fresh to strong trades will prevail across the south- central Caribbean through Wed night as high pressure remains over the western Atlantic. Fresh to strong winds are expected to pulse nightly in the Gulf of Honduras tonight through Wed night. Moderate to fresh E winds are expected in the lee of Cuba through Tue night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... See the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Ana north of the area and northeast of Bermuda and the gale warnings in off Morocco and near the Canary Islands. A 1023 mb high pressure is centered off the northeast Florida coast near 29N77W. East of this, an upper trough extends from west of Bermuda to over the Mona Passage, supporting a surface trough reaching from the Mona Passage northward to 27N59W. Divergence aloft on the eastern side of the upper trough is supporting scattered showers between these surface troughs, specifically from 16N near U.S. Virgin Islands north to 28N between 52W and 63W. NW swell related in part to Post tropical cyclone Ana which is Supporting 6 to 8 ft seas over the open waters west of 65W. Farther east, broad ridging dominates the waters north of 20N, anchored by 1033 mb high pressure centered over the Azores. In addition to the gales off northwest Africa described in the Special Features section, this pattern is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds and 6 to 8 ft south of 29N and east of 38W. For the forecast for the waters west of 65W, long period NE swell will continue to impact the forecast waters through tonight. A frontal trough is supporting some shower and thunderstorm activity over the SE waters, including the NE Caribbean. A ridge will dominate the forecast region over the next several days producing moderate to fresh easterly winds S of 25N and gentle to moderate E winds from 25N to 27N. Light and variable winds will prevail elsewhere. $$ Torres