000 AXNT20 KNHC 231043 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sun May 23 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Ana is centered near 35.7N 60.5W at 23/0900 UTC or 300 nm NE of Bermuda moving NE at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm in the western semicircle. Seas up to 12 ft extend 90 nm in the western semicircle, in the NE quadrant, and 60 nm in the SE quadrant. Ana is expected to continue moving northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected during the next day or so. Slight weakening is expected over the next 24 hours and Ana is expected to dissipate by Monday. Ana will remain well north of the forecast waters. However, swell associated with Tropical Storm Ana will impact the waters north of 27N between 60W and 75W today. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml for more details. Gale Warning: A Gale Warning is in effect for the Agadir region. North to northeast gale force winds will continue through 25/1200 UTC at least. The latest scatterometer data depicts 35 kt northerly winds in this area. Seas are expected to be rough. See the High Seas Warning and High Seas Forecast products from Meteo France at weather.gmdss.org/II.html for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 58W south of 15N, moving W at 20 kt. No significant convection is associated with this wave at this time. The wave could enhance showers over the southern Windward Islands and SE Caribbean today. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea near 09N14W to 07N19W. The ITCZ continues from 07N19W to 04N36W to the coast of Brazil near 03N51W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 08N between 17W and 30W and from 03N to 06N between 36W to 51W. GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure is centered over the western Atlantic and extends across most of the basin. A trough is off the Florida Panhandle from 30N86W to 27N87W. No significant convection is associated with it. Another trough is located in the southeast Bay of Campeche from 22N91W to 19N93W. Scattered moderate convection is noted near this trough in the Bay of Campeche, S of 24N between 91W to 97W. Isolated thunderstorms are also noted in the NW Gulf off the southeast Texas coast. Meanwhile, fresh to strong E-SE winds prevail across most of the Gulf of Mexico with seas 6 to 9 ft. The SW Gulf has gentle to moderate winds with seas 3 to 5 ft. For the forecast, a ridge will dominate the Gulf waters during the next several days. Fresh to locally strong E to SE winds will continue across most of the Gulf through tonight. Moderate winds will prevail across most of the basin through midweek. Fresh to strong winds will pulse nightly off the Yucatan tonight through Wed night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Isolated thunderstorms are noted in the eastern Caribbean near the Lesser Antilles, from 11N to 15N between 62W to 66W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted in the SW Caribbean near Colombia, S of 12N between 76W to 83W. Isolated thunderstorms are also noted in the Gulf of Honduras. Fresh to strong easterly winds prevail across the south-central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh easterly winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 6 to 8 ft range over the central Caribbean and 4 to 7 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, high pressure across the western Atlantic will support fresh to strong winds and 6 to 10 ft seas across the central Caribbean through Wed night. Fresh to locally strong winds are expected in the lee of Cuba through Mon. ATLANTIC OCEAN... See the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Ana north of the area near Bermuda and the Gale Warning in Agadir. A stationary front lingers north of the Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, from 28N53W to 19N69W. A trough is to the west of the front from 26N63W to 22N68W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 19N to 31N between 54W to 72W. Otherwise, high pressure extends across the rest of the western Atlantic anchored by a 1023 mb high pressure off the Florida coast near 30N75W. Ridging also extends across the central and eastern Atlantic anchored by a 1033 mb high near the Azores. Fresh easterly winds prevail along the Bahamas southward toward Hispaniola and Puerto Rico in addition to near 31N62W. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds prevail. Seas range 6 to 8 ft. For the forecast west of 65W, fresh easterly winds will continue across the Bahamas with moderate winds elsewhere across the region. Large swell associated with Tropical Storm Ana near Bermuda will impact the region today. Quiescent conditions are expected Mon through midweek. $$ AReinhart