000 AXNT20 KNHC 222033 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sun May 23 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Subtropical Storm Ana is centered near 34.3N 63.0W at 22/1500 UTC or 150 nm NE of Bermuda moving W at 3 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is within 120 nm NE semicircle with scattered moderate convection within 90 nm SW semicircle of Ana. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Ana is forecast to remain well north of the forecast waters. However, large swell associated with the subtropical storm will affect the waters north of 27N between 60W and 75W through tonight. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml for more details. Gale Warning for the Canary Islands: The pressure gradient between a 1034 mb high pressure centered near 40N33W and lower pressures over NW Africa is supporting gale force winds near and in bewteen the Canary Islands, as well as over the marine zone Agadir. Outside of the gales, strong to near gale force winds will cover the area north of 25N and east of 24W today. Expect seas to build to 12-14 ft offshore Morocco this weekend, with 9- 11 ft seas elsewhere north of 22N and east of 32W. See the High Seas Warning and High Seas Forecast products from Meteo France at weather.gmdss.org/II.html for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 55W south of 13N, moving W at 20 kt. Scattered showers are within 180 nm either side of the wave axis from 03N to 08N. The wave could enhance showers over the southern Windward Islands and SE Caribbean on Sunday. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Sierra Leone near 10N14W to 07N19W. The ITCZ continues from 07N19W to 04N34W to 02N48W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 09N between 13W and 20W, and within 60 nm north of the ITCZ between 22W and 48W. GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure is centered over the SE United States. Fresh to strong E-SE winds prevail across most of the Gulf of Mexico, except for the SW Gulf and waters adjacent to eastern Mexico where winds are gentle to moderate. Seas are 6 to 9 ft over much of the Gulf waters, except for the extreme SW Gulf where seas are 3 to 5 ft. For the forecast, fresh to strong E to SE winds will prevail across the central and eastern Gulf through tonight. Seas will gradually subside across the Gulf waters through Mon. CARIBBEAN SEA... Fresh to strong winds prevail across the south central Caribbean as well as over the NW Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 6 to 9 ft range over the central Caribbean and 6 to 8 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, high pressure north of the Bahamas across the western Atlantic will support fresh to strong winds and 6 to 9 ft seas across the central Caribbean through Wed. ATLANTIC OCEAN... See the Special Features section above for details on Subtropical Storm Ana north of the area near Bermuda. A stationary front extends from 31N43W to the windward passage. A surface trough extends from 30N68W to 27N64W, with a second trough from 25N62W to 21N68W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted in the vicinity of the troughs and stationary front. Fresh to strong winds prevail S of 22N and west of 70W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere N of 20N. S of 20N, fresh trade winds prevail. Fresh to strong winds are noted north of 25N and east of 26W, with localized areas of near-gale to gale force in the vicinity of the Canary Islands. For the forecast west of 65W, the stationary front along 20N will slowly dissipate through tonight. The pressure gradient between high pressure off the eastern seaboard and the frontal boundary will support fresh to strong easterly winds N of the front to about 25N and W of 70W today. Large swell associated with Subtropical Storm Ana near Bermuda will affect the northeast forecast waters through early Sun. $$ AL