000 AXNT20 KNHC 221721 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sat May 22 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Subtropical Storm Ana is centered near 34.3N 63.0W at 22/1500 UTC or 150 nm NE of Bermuda moving W at 3 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Ana is forecast to remain well north of the forecast waters. However, large swell associated with the subtropical storm will affect the waters north of 27N between 60W and 75W through tonight. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml for more details. Gale Warning for the Canary Islands: The pressure gradient between a 1035 mb high pressure centered near 41N35W and lower pressures over NW Africa is supporting gale force winds near and in bewteen the Canary Islands, as well as over the marine zone Agadir. Outside of the gales, strong to near gale force winds will cover the area north of 25N and east of 24W today. Expect seas to build to 12-14 ft offshore Morocco this weekend, with 9- 11 ft seas elsewhere north of 22N and east of 32W. See the High Seas Warning and High Seas Forecast products from Meteo France at weather.gmdss.org/II.html for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 51W south of 13N, moving W at 20 kt. Scattered showers are within 180 nm either side of the wave axis between 49W-56W. The wave could enhance showers over the southern Windward Islands and SE Caribbean on Sunday. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Sierra Leone near 10N14W to 07N19W. The ITCZ continues from 07N19W to 04N34W to 02N47W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 09N between 12W to 20W. GULF OF MEXICO... A well-defined 1012 mb surface low pressure is moved over SE Texas this morning and is producing heavy rain and gusty winds across eastern Texas. Fresh to strong E-SE winds prevail across most of the Gulf of Mexico, except for the SW Gulf and waters adjacent to eastern Mexico where winds are gentle to moderate. Scattered moderate showers are noted over the western Gulf north of 21N between 88W to 95W. High pressure ridging stretching from the Carolinas continues over the NE Gulf. Seas are 6 to 9 ft over the central Gulf and 5 to 7 ft elsewhere, except for the extreme SW Gulf where seas are 3 to 5 ft. For the forecast, fresh to strong E to SE winds will prevail across the central and eastern Gulf through tonight. Seas will gradually subside across the Gulf waters through Mon. CARIBBEAN SEA... A recent scatterometer pass reveals mainly fresh E winds over the basin. Areas of locally strong winds are noted in the south- central Caribbean, over waters south of Cuba, north of 20N, and within the Yucatan channel. Scattered thunderstorms are located within 150 nm E of the Yucatan Peninsula. Similar convection is also noted offshore western Panama due to the east Pacific monsoon trough. Seas range from 6 to 10 ft over the central Caribbean and range from 6 to 8 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, high pressure north of the Bahamas across the western Atlantic will support fresh to strong winds and 6 to 9 ft seas across the central Caribbean through Wed. ATLANTIC OCEAN... See the Special Features section above for details on Subtropical Storm Ana north of the area near Bermuda. Fresh NE winds prevail between 70W and the eastern coast of Florida, including the over Florida Straits and the Bahamas with seas of 6 to 7 ft. Farther east, a stationary front enters the discussion area near 31N47W extending to 20N68W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are mainly within 100 nm W of the front. A surface trough preceding the front stretching from 23N65W to 21N71W is also producing isolated showers and thunderstorms over waters north of Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. Winds north of 20N and W of 30W are gentle to moderate with seas of 5 to 7 ft, while fresh trade winds are south of 20N with seas of 7 to 9 ft. Fresh to strong winds are noted north of 25N and east of 26W, with localized areas of near-gale to gale force in the vicinity of the Canary Islands. For the forecast west of 65W, the stationary front along 20N will slowly dissipate through tonight. The pressure gradient between high pressure off the eastern seaboard and the frontal boundary will support fresh to strong easterly winds N of the front to about 25N and W of 70W today. Large swell associated with Subtropical Storm Ana near Bermuda will affect the northeast forecast waters through early Sun. $$ Mora