000 AXNT20 KNHC 191048 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Wed May 19 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0940 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea near 10N14W to 05N20W to 03N33W. The ITCZ continues from 03N33W to 01N43W to 04N53W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is from 01N to 08N between 05W and 30W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is elsewhere within 120 nm N of the ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... A weak stationary front continues from the Atlantic Ocean through the south central Bahamas near 23N75W and across the Straits of Florida along 23N and along the NW coast of Cuba. High pressure centered just offshore of Cape Hatteras extends a surface ridge S-SW across the Florida Big Bend toward to the north central Gulf of Mexico. The associated pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure across Mexico is producing fresh to strong winds across much of the Gulf early this morning, with strongest winds across the NE Gulf to the mouth of the Mississippi River. Seas are 8 to 9 ft and building across this area, as well as through the Straits of Florida where strong early winds and blowing counter to the Florida Current. Seas are 6 to 8 ft elsewhere except lower across the Bay of Campeche. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted across this area of strongest surface winds from the Straits of Florida to southeast Louisiana. This strong surface ridge from eastern seaboard to the NE Gulf will continue to dominate the Gulf waters the remainder of the week. The pressure gradient between the ridge and a deepening low pressure across the Southern Plains and northern Mexico will maintain fresh to strong mainly SE winds, and high seas across the Gulf region today through Fri. Expect peak seas of 10 or 11 ft Thu and Fri and to 12 ft in the Straits of Florida. CARIBBEAN SEA... A weak stationary front continues across the wester Atlantic and through the south central Bahamas along about 23N. This is producing a modest pressure gradient across the basin, with only moderate to fresh tradewinds presently. A small area of fresh to strong SE winds are occurring across the outer waters of the Gulf of Honduras. Stable atmospheric conditions persist across most of the basin. A few clusters of moderate convection are seen across the SW Caribbean south of 12.5N, while scattered showers are seen across the Yucatan Channel. The monsoon trough passes through Colombia near 11N74W, through Panama and into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Trade winds will increase basin wide tonight through Sun night as high pressure builds across the western Atlantic north of the stationary front. Expect fresh to strong easterly winds in the Gulf of Honduras mainly at night through Thu night. ATLANTIC OCEAN A cold front bisects the Atlantic Ocean this morning, and enters the discussion area through 31N39W to 25N47W to 24N50W. The front then becomes stationary, and continues along about 23N to the NW coast of Cuba. A 1027 mb surface high pressure center is located offshore of Cape Hatteras this morning. The pressure gradient between this high and the front is producing an area of fresh NE to E winds across the waters east of Florida to 67-68W, where seas are 7 to 8 ft. Scattered moderate convection is seen within 150 nm south of the frontal boundary across the Atlantic, the Bahamas and through the Straits of Florida. East of the frontal boundary, a ridge prevails, extending from 1028 mb high pressure near 42N14W through 31N28W to 25N41W to the Turks and Caicos Islands. The pressure gradient to the south of this ridge is producing moderate to locally fresh tradewinds across the Tropical Atlantic south of 17N, where seas are 5 to 8 ft. N-to-NE winds have diminished below gale-force in the METEO- FRANCE forecast area offshore of Morrocco, that is called AGADIR. Winds to 30 kt and seas to 12 ft continue across this area. A frontal boundary extending through the SE Bahamas will gradually become aligned E to W along 22N/23N through Thu then sink southward and weaken, approaching the Windward Passage and Hispaniola by Fri night. The pressure gradient between high pressure off of Cape Hatteras and the frontal boundary will support an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of the front and W of 68W Wed through Fri with seas peaking around 10 to 11 ft E of the Bahamas late Wed through early Thu. The northern portion of the cold front will drift northward Thu and Fri as low pressure across the NW Atlantic sinks southward towards Bermuda. This low center is expected to produce gale-force winds as it approaches Bermuda Fri, and will generate N swell to move into the waters west of 60W this coming weekend. $$ Stripling