000 AXNT20 KNHC 190605 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Wed May 19 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0550 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...METEO-FRANCE GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING OFF THE COAST OF MOROCCO... The surface pressure gradient, that is between the 1029 mb high pressure center that is about 320 nm to the west of Portugal, and the comparatively lower surface pressures in West Africa, is supporting N-to-NE gale-force winds in the METEO-FRANCE forecast area, that is called AGADIR. The sea heights are ranging from 8 feet to 12 feet. The wind speeds are forecast to be less than gale-force on 19 may at 0900 UTC. Please, refer to the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast, that is on the website: http://www.gmdss.org/bulletins/METAREA2.HIGH_SEAS_WARNING.0404.19 04042760097.html, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea near 10N14W, to 05N20W, 05N29W, and to 03N33W. The ITCZ continues from 03N33W, to 01N37W, and to 01N43W. Precipitation: numerous strong is within 120 nm of the coast of Africa from 06N to 08.5N, affecting the coastal waters of Sierra Leone. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is elsewhere from 08N southward from 60W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... A dissipating stationary front continues from 23N70W in the Atlantic Ocean, to the Bahamas near 23N75W, along the coast of Cuba, to 23N85W in the Gulf of Mexico. A surface ridge passes from the Florida Big Bend toward the south central Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong in a few clusters are from 23N northward between 84W and 91W. An upper level trough passes through the middle Texas Gulf coast, into the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. The scatterometer winds show that fresh-to-strong SE winds are from 20N northward from 90W westward. The sea heights are ranging from 6 feet to 7 feet from 24N northward from 86W westward. Strong-to-near gale easterly winds are from Cuba northward between Florida and 85W. NE-to-E fresh-to-strong winds are elsewhere on either side of Florida, from Cuba northward, between 77W and 86W. The sea heights that are in the Straits of Florida, between 80W and 84W, are ranging from 7 feet to 9 feet. A strong ridge from eastern seaboard to the NE Gulf will continue to dominate the Gulf waters the remainder of the week. The pressure gradient between the ridge and a deepening low pressure across the Southern Plains and northern Mexico will result in an increase in winds and seas across the Gulf region tonight through Fri. Under this pattern, expect fresh to strong E to SE winds, and peak seas of up to 10 or 11 ft Thu and Fri. Similar marine conditions are expected in the Straits of Florida. CARIBBEAN SEA... A dissipating stationary front continues from 23N70W in the Atlantic Ocean, to the Bahamas near 23N75W, along the coast of Cuba, to 23N85W in the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: Isolated moderate rainshowers are in the NW corner of the area, from Jamaica northward and from Jamaica westward. The monsoon trough passes through Colombia near 10N74W, through Panama and Colombia, beyond southern Costa Rica, and into the eastern Pacific Ocean. An upper level ridge extends from northern Colombia to Nicaragua. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is inland in parts of Venezuela and Colombia, from 05N to the coastline between 72W and 79W. An upper level ridge extends from northern Colombia to Nicaragua. Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the Caribbean Sea. The GFS model for 500 mb shows one separate anticyclonic circulation center that is off the coast of NE Nicaragua, and a second separate anticyclonic circulation center that is near the ABC Islands that are off the coast of Venezuela. The GFS model for 700 mb shows an inverted trough that runs from Jamaica into the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea. A ridge is along 15N/16N from 67W eastward. Broken to overcast low level clouds, and isolated moderate rainshowers, cover the rest of the Caribbean Sea. The clouds and isolated moderate precipitation are moving with the surface-to-low level wind flow. The scatterometer winds show that moderate-to-fresh easterly winds span the Caribbean Sea. Sea heights of 5 feet cover the areas that are from 17N southward between 64W and 80W. High pressure across the NE Atlc extends weakly north of the eastern Caribbean and will maintain moderate to fresh tradewinds across the basin through Wed. The trade winds will increase basin- wide Wed night through Sun night as high pressure builds across the western Atlantic. Expect fresh to strong easterly winds in the Gulf of Honduras mainly at night through Thu night. ATLANTIC OCEAN N-to-NE gale-force winds are in the METEO-FRANCE forecast area, that is called AGADIR. The sea heights are ranging from 8 feet to 12 feet. The wind speeds are forecast to be less than gale-force on 19 may at 0900 UTC. Please, refer to the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast, that is on the website: http://www.gmdss.org/bulletins/METAREA2.HIGH_SEAS_WARNING.0404.19 04042760097.html, for more details. A cold front passes through 31N41W to 26N46W to 24N52W. The front becomes stationary, and it continues from 24N52W to 23N70W. A dissipating stationary front continues from 23N70W, to the Bahamas near 23N75W, along the coast of Cuba, to 23N85W in the Gulf of Mexico. The scatterometer winds show that fresh-to-strong NE winds are within 480 nm to the north of the stationary front and the dissipating stationary front. The sea heights are ranging from 6 feet to 12 feet to the north of the cold front/stationary front from 60W eastward, and from 6 feet to 7 feet to the north of the frontal boundary from 60W westward. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 360 nm to the north of the frontal boundary from 60W eastward, within 180 nm to the north of the frontal boundary from 60W westward, and within 120 nm to the south of the frontal boundary between 72W and 79W between The Bahamas, Haiti, and Cuba. A surface trough is along 61W/62W from 26N northward. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and other possible rainshowers, are elsewhere from 20N northward from 40W westward. An upper level trough extends from 22N34W to 15N39W to 07N43W. No significant deep convective precipitation is apparent in satellite imagery. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery within 540 nm to the northwest of the upper level trough. A surface ridge passes through 31N29W, to 25N40W, 19N50W, and to 16N65W in the eastern Caribbean Sea. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is on top of The Western Sahara. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery within 600 nm of the center in the SW semicircle. The current stationary front is extending from 24N65W through the SE Bahamas to central Cuba near 22N79W will gradually become aligned E to W along 22N/23N through Thu then sink southward, approaching Puerto Rico and the Leeward Islands by Fri night. The pressure gradient between high pressure off of Cape Hatteras and the frontal boundary will support an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of the front and W of 68W Wed through Fri with seas peaking around 10 to 11 ft E of the Bahamas late Wed through early Thu. $$ mt/SS