000 AXNT20 KNHC 181025 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Tue May 18 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0920 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...METEO-FRANCE GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING OFF THE COAST OF MOROCCO... The surface pressure gradient between the 1024 mb Azores high pressure center that is near 34N23W and the comparatively lower surface pressures in West Africa, is supporting gale-force winds in the METEO-FRANCE forecast area, that is called AGADIR. The sea heights there are ranging from 9 to 11 feet. The winds are forecast to diminish below gale-force at 19/0000 UTC. Please, refer to the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast, that is on the website: www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/metarea2, or the website: http://www.gmdss.org/bulletins/METAREA2.HIGH_SEAS_WARNING.0635.1806352524849.html for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea near 10N14W to 05N26W. The ITCZ continues from 05N26W to 03N36W to the NE coast of Brazil near 02N51W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 00N to 07N between 05W and 30W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 01N to 06N between 33W and 50W. GULF OF MEXICO... Surface high pressure along the eastern seaboard extends a ridge S-SW through Georgia and northern Florida, and into the north central Gulf of Mexico. The associated pressure gradient is supporting moderate to fresh SE winds across most of the basin, except SE to S winds across NW portions. Seas are 4 to 6 ft across much of the basin, except to 7 ft in the Straits of Florida. Middle level troughing extending from W Texas into the NW Gulf continues to interact with moist return flow at low levels and is producing clusters of strong convection across south central and southeast Louisiana extending southward over waters to 27.5N, and also across the central Texas coast and adjacent waters. Storms over Louisiana and adjacent coastal waters have produced torrential rainfall and wind gusts 30-40 kt overnight. Elsewhere across the basin, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen across the SE Gulf and Straits of Florida, embedded in the fresh easterly wind flow across the basin. High pressure along the middle Atlantic coasts extending SW to the N central Gulf will remain generally stationary throughout the week. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the basin today. Winds will increase to fresh to strong tonight through Fri as low pressure deepens across the Southern Plains and northern Mexico. CARIBBEAN SEA... High pressure across the NE Atlantic extends W-SW across the central Atlantic and weakly north of the NE Caribbean. The associated pressure gradient is producing moderate to fresh tradewinds across the basin. Generally fair weather prevails across most of the basin under the stable influence of an upper level trough. Widely scattered moderate convection is seen across the coastal waters of Cuba, north of 20N, due to associated moisture from a shearline extending from the central Bahamas across central Cuba to the Yucatan Channel. The monsoon trough extends from Colombia near 11N73W, through Panama and into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Scattered strong convection across NW Colombia extends across the SW Caribbean to 11.5N79W. The weak high pressure ridge extending north of the NE Caribbean will maintain moderate to fresh tradewinds across the basin through Wed. Trade winds will increase basin wide Wed night through Fri night as high pressure builds across the western Atlantic. Expect fresh to strong easterly winds in the Gulf of Honduras mainly at night through Thu night. ATLANTIC OCEAN A lingering cold front extends from 31N46W to 25N54W to 24N64W then becomes a shearline to east central Cuba near 23N77W. passes through 31N48W to 29N50W to 24N60W. High pressure along the coast of Cape Hatteras is supporting moderate to fresh E-NE winds to the north of the shearline and west of 68W, where seas are 5 to 7 ft. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are within 120 nm of the front to the east of 65W, while scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen elsewhere north of the shearline west of 65W and through the Straits of Florida. To the east of the front, and elongated ridge extends from 1024 mb high pressure near 34N23W to the Turks and Caicos Islands. Generally fair weather prevails SE of the front and into the tropics. Satellite imagery suggests area of suspended African dust across the Tropical Atlantic south of 17N from 45W to the W African coast. Moderate tradewinds prevail across the tropics south of 17N, where seas are 5 to 7 ft. The stationary portions of the front will gradually become aligned E to W along 23N through Thu then sink southward to 21N and dissipate by Fri night. The pressure gradient between high pressure off of Cape Hatteras and the frontal boundary will support an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of the front and W of 68W Wed through Fri morning, with seas peaking around 11 ft E of the Bahamas late Wed through early Thu. $$ Stripling