000 AXNT20 KNHC 171643 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Mon May 17 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1600 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING OFF THE COAST OF MOROCCO... A strong pressure gradient between a 1026 mb Azores High near 33N27W and lower pressures over NW Africa will support developing gale-force winds in the METEO-FRANCE forecast area, that is called AGADIR. The gale-force winds are forecast to start at 17/1500 UTC, and end possibly at 18/0600 UTC. Seas are forecast to range from 9 to 12 feet. Please, refer to the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast: www.meteofrance.com/ previsions-meteo- marine/bulletin/grandlarge/metarea2 for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea near 10N15W to 06N25W. The ITCZ continues from 06N25W to 03N61 along the coast of NE Brazil. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted south of 05N and east of 23W. Widely scattered moderate convection is noted south of 03N and west of 35W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge over the SE United States along with a trough over N central Mexico is producing E to SE moderate to fresh winds across the Gulf. Seas are 4 to 6 ft. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 120 NM of the Louisiana and Mississippi coasts. High pressure along the middle Atlantic coasts extending SW to the NE Gulf will remain generally stationary throughout the week. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the basin through Tue. Winds will increase to fresh to strong late Tue through Fri as low pressure deepens across the Southern Plains. CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1027 mb Bermuda High centered near 38N70W along with a 1010 mb Colombian Low near 10N76W is contributing to fresh to strong NE to E trades in the S central Caribbean and gentle to moderate E trades elsewhere. Seas are 5 to 7 ft over the S central Caribbean and 2 to 4 ft elsewhere. The tail end of a shear line extends across central Cuba to 21N83W and is causing scattered showers from 20N to 22N between 78W and 83W. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of 10N in the SW Caribbean. The Bermuda High NE of the Caribbean Sea will shift eastward and weaken, diminishing winds and seas modestly through Wed. Trade winds will increase basin wide Wed night through Fri night as high pressure builds across the western Atlantic. ATLANTIC OCEAN A cold front extends southwestward from a 1006 mb low at 32N53W to 25N60W, where it transitions to a stationary front to 24N67W, where it transitions to a shear line to central Cuba. Winds north of 28N behind the front are NW fresh to strong, while ahead of the front are SW to W fresh to near gale. Seas in these winds are 8 to 12 ft. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 60 NM of the front east of 60W, while scattered showers are occurring within 60 NM of the front/shear line west of 60W. A ridge extends southwestward from a 1026 mb Azores High at 33N27W to 22N65W. NE to E trades south of the ridge are moderate to fresh. Elsewhere winds across the tropical N Atlantic are light to moderate with seas of 4 to 7 ft. For the forecast west of 65W, the weakening frontal boundary from 25N65W to the central Bahamas will drift SE and dissipate through late Tue. Its remnants will drift N along 23N-24N. The pressure gradient between high pressure off of Hatteras and the frontal boundary will support an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of 23N and W of 68W with seas to 11 ft E of the Bahamas late Tue through Fri. For the forecast east of 65W, the strong to near gale winds associated with the cold front will lift north of the area by late Tue. Swells of 8 to 10 ft will continue north of 27N east of 65W through Wed night. NE to E trades south of 20N will continue as moderate to fresh for the next several days. $$ Landsea