453 AXNT20 KNHC 170604 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Mon May 17 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0510 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING... A 1004 mb low pressure center is near 32N59W, just to the north of the area. Expect gale-force SW-to-W winds, and sea heights ranging from 10 feet to 12 feet, in the area that from 30N to 31N between 58W and 60W. ...GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING OFF THE COAST OF MOROCCO... The surface pressure gradient, that is between a high pressure center that is between the Madeira Archipelago and the Azores Islands, and comparatively lower surface pressures in West Africa, will support developing gale-force winds in the METEO-FRANCE forecast area, that is called AGADIR. The gale-force winds are forecast to start at 17/1500 UTC, and end possibly at 18/0000 UTC. The sea heights are forecast to range from 9 to 12 feet. Please, refer to the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast, that is on the website: www.meteofrance.com/ previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/metarea2, or the website: http://www.gmdss.org/bulletins/METAREA2.HIGH_SEAS_WARNING.1919.16 19193337429.html, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea_Bissau near 11N15W, to 06N20W. The ITCZ continues from 06N20W, to 03N30W, to the Equator along 35W. The ITCZ continues along the Equator, from 35W to 42W, to 06N52W, and to 10N61W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is from 01N to 04N between 14W and 17W, and from 02N to 01S between 40W and 45W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is in the remainder of the area that is from 06N southward. GULF OF MEXICO... A shear line extends from the Bahamas near 23N75W, to NW Cuba, and to 23N88W in the Gulf of Mexico. Upper level SW-to-W wind flow is moving through the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is within 90 nm to the south of the coasts of Louisiana and Texas between 92W and 95W. Precipitation: Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and isolated moderate cover the Gulf of Mexico from 26N southward. The clouds and precipitation are in the area of the frontal boundary that was in the Gulf of Mexico during the last few days. High pressure across the SE U.S. will shift slowly into the western Atlc through Tue, supporting moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the basin. Winds will increase to fresh to strong late Tue through Thu as low pressure deepens across the Southern Plains. CARIBBEAN SEA... The monsoon trough passes through Colombia near 11N74W, through Panama near 09N80W, beyond southern Costa Rica, and into the eastern Pacific Ocean. An upper level ridge extends from northern Colombia to Nicaragua and Honduras. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is in Colombia, near the border with Venezuela, from 07N to 11N between 72W and 75W. An upper level ridge extends from northern Colombia to Nicaragua and Honduras. Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the Caribbean Sea. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery from 67W eastward. Broken to overcast low level clouds, and isolated moderate rainshowers, cover the rest of the Caribbean Sea. The clouds and isolated moderate precipitation are moving with the surface-to-low level wind flow. The scatterometer winds show that strong NE winds are within 200 nm of the coast of Colombia between 64W and 77W. The sea heights in that same area are ranging from 6 to 7 feet. Atlc high pressure ridge NE of the area will shift eastward and weaken, diminishing winds and seas modestly through Mon. Trade winds will increase basin wide Wed night through Fri night as high pressure builds across the W Atlc. ATLANTIC OCEAN A cold front passes through 31N57W to 27N60W to 24N70W, to the Bahamas near 23N75W. A shear line continues from 23N75W, to NW Cuba, and to 23N88W in the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 240 nm to the south of the cold front, from 24N northeastward. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and isolated moderate rainshowers, are elsewhere from 20N northward from 50W westward. A surface ridge extends from a 1025 mb high pressure center that is near 33N27W, to 27N46W, to 25N61W, and to 24N70W. The scatterometer winds show that fresh to strong are within 300 nm to the southeast of the 1004 mb low pressure center, that is near 32N59W, that is responsible for the gale-force winds. Upper-level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 17N northward from 33W eastward, associated with a 24N26W upper level cyclonic circulation center. A weakening frontal boundary from 25.5N65W to the central Bahamas will drift SE and dissipate through Tue. Winds will increase north of 24N and west of 68W late Tue through Thu as high pressure builds across the W Atlc. $$ mt/SS