000 AXNT20 KNHC 161657 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sun May 16 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1630 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough exits western Africa from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W to 05N21.5W. The ITCZ continues from 05N21.5W to 03N36W to 05N49W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is seen from 00N-09N between 02W-23W, and from 02N-05N between 32W-43W. GULF OF MEXICO... A mid-level shortwave pushing eastward across northern Texas is enhancing uplift over eastern Texas. The latest CIMSS analysis from University of Wisconsin shows upper-level divergence over the NW Gulf of Mexico. TPW imagery shows abundant moisture over the western Gulf. These aforementioned factors are leading to scattered moderate and isolated strong thunderstorms over the western Gulf, mainly north of 25N and west of 95W. A recent ASCAT pass shows fresh SE winds over the west-central Gulf, north of 21N and west of 94W, but locally much gustier winds are possible in strong thunderstorms. A 1025 mb high pressure centered over South Carolina extends surface ridging towards the central Gulf. A recent ASCAT pass shows fresh E winds over the E Gulf. Seas are 5-7 ft in the west-central Gulf and 4-6 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, high pressure across the SE U.S. will shift slowly into the western Atlc through Tue to support moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the basin. Active weather will continue across NW portions today. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms will gradually migrate toward the central Gulf through Tue. Winds will increase to fresh to strong late Tue through Thu as low pressure deepens across the Southern Plains. CARIBBEAN SEA... Dry air and mostly clear skies prevail over the eastern half of the Caribbean. Little to no precipitation is seen over the western half of the basin either, although scattered clouds are present. High pressure over the NE Atlantic extends surface ridging SW to 23N65W and is supporting strong NE-E trade winds off the coast of Colombia, south of 13N between 74W-77W, as shown by a recent ASCAT pass. Fresh winds prevail elsewhere from 10N-15N between 70W-78W. Moderate winds cover the remainder of the basin. Seas are 6-8 ft offshore Colombia, 4-6 ft elsewhere south of 16N, and 2-4 ft north of 16N. For the forecast, the Atlc high pressure ridge NE of the area will shift eastward and weaken, diminishing winds and seas modestly tonight through Mon. Trade winds will increase basin wide Wed night through Thu night as high pressure builds across the W Atlc. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from a 1013 mb low pressure near 31.5N64W to 28N66W to 25N72W. A shear line extends from 25N72W to the coast of Cuba near 23N80W. A warm front extends ESE from the low pressure to 30N56W. A cold front continues ENE from 30N56W to 31N50W. Scattered moderate convection is seen north of 26N between 52W-63W. The latest ASCAT pass shows moderate N winds north of the cold front, except for fresh to strong closer to the low pressure. Fresh NE winds are also occurring just east of Florida. Seas north of the Bahamas and west of 70W are currently 5-7 ft. To the south of the cold front and shear line, gentle E-SE trades cover the waters from the SE Bahamas to the N coast of Hispaniola. A 1025 mb high pressure over South Carolina extends ridging to the NW Bahamas. For the forecast, the 1013 mb low pressure near 31.5N64W is forecast to intensify and move ENE over the next 12-24 hours, producing gale force winds around its western semicircle by this afternoon. This will spread large seas north of 28N and behind the front over the central Atlantic through Tuesday. The portion of the cold front west of 65W will drift SE and dissipate by Tue. Winds will increase north of 24N and west of 68W late Tue through Thu as high pressure builds across the W Atlc. Farther east currently, a 1027 mb high pressure near 34N25W extends a broad surface ridge axis to 29N40W to 23N59W to 23N65W. Gentle to moderate winds cover the subtropical Atlantic from 18N-30N between 25W-60W, except for moderate to fresh SW winds north of 26N and west of 56W, in advance of the cold front. Seas are 4-5 ft across the gentle to moderate wind area of the subtropical Atlantic. Fresh to strong NE winds prevail from the Canary Islands to the coast of Morocco, where seas are 7-9 ft. In the tropical Atlantic south of 18N and east of 60W, most areas are experiencing moderate NE-E trade winds with seas of 6-7 ft. $$ Hagen