595 AXNT20 KNHC 150952 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sat May 15 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GALE WARNING: A warning for gale-force winds, in the AGADIR area, has been issued by METEO-FRANCE. The gale-force winds are forecast to be present off the coast of Morocco, until 16/0000 UTC. Please, refer to the High Seas Forecast at the website: www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/metarea2, or the website: http://www.gmdss.org/bulletins/METAREA2.HIGH_SEAS_WARNING.1911.14 19120119262.html, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea near 09N13W to 05N22W. The ITCZ continues from 05N22W to 07N40W, then continues along the Equator/01S, from 40W to 47W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 06.5N between 07W and 24W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 00N to 06.5N between 30W and 51W. GULF OF MEXICO... A dissipating cold front passes through the western Straits of Florida, to 24N95W. A surface trough continues from 24N95W and curves to the northern coastal areas of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. A surface trough is in the coastal plains and the coastal waters of the western sections of the Yucatan Peninsula. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds prevail within 150 nm N of the front across the Gulf, and across the waters within 180 nm of the NW coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Widely scattered to scattered moderate convection is seen across the Bay of Campeche south of 20N, and across western portions from 21.5N to 24.5N west of 94.5W to the Mexican coast. The current dissipating stationary front from the Straits of Florida to 24N95W will lift slowly northward and dissipate through Sun. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds will persist over most areas through Tue as high pressure builds north of the area. CARIBBEAN SEA... The monsoon trough passes through Colombia near 11N74W, through Panama about 80 nm to the north of its border with Colombia, beyond southern Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. An upper level ridge extends from northern Colombia to central Nicaragua. An upper level trough passes through 17N60W in the Atlantic Ocean, toward the ABC Islands. Drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery, from 12N northward from 75W eastward and is producing stable weather conditions generally east of 80W. Fresh to strong tradewinds prevail across south central portions of the basin south of 14.5N. Scattered moderate convection is noted across the Gulf of Honduras south of 16.5N. The current Atlantic Ocean high pressure ridge, that is extending W-SW to the central Bahamas, will support fresh to strong trade winds in the south-central Caribbean through Sat. Winds and seas will gradually diminish late Sat through Mon as the high pressure shifts eastward and weakens. Tradewinds will increase across the south-central Caribbean late Mon through Wed as high pressure builds across the W Atlc. ATLANTIC OCEAN A warning for gale-force winds, in the AGADIR area, has been issued by METEO-FRANCE. The gale-force winds are forecast to be present off the coast of Morocco, until 16/0000 UTC. A dissipating cold front passes through 31N62W to 28.5N74W , through the far northern Bahamas and extreme SE Florida and through the Straits of Florida. Winds are generally E around 15 kt north of the front and east of 75W, while a surge of NNE winds around 20 kt was captured by overnight scatterometer data offshore of NE Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina to the west of 77W. Seas there are 8-9 ft. Light to gentle variable winds are seen elsewhere W of 65W. Scattered moderate convection is seen north of 27N between 56W and 66W, on either side of the front. A surface ridge extends from a 1024 mb high pressure center near 32N32W to the central Bahamas. This broad ridge is supporting moderate to fresh tradewinds across the Tropical Atlantic south of 21N, where seas are 6-8 ft. The current cold front will sink slowly southeastward and weaken through Mon, and dissipate late Mon as it becomes E to W aligned along 25N. Winds will increase north of 25N and west of 70W late Tue through Wed as high pressure builds across the W Atlc. $$ Stripling