000 AXNT20 KNHC 150604 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sat May 15 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0550 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GALE WARNING: A warning for gale-force winds, in the AGADIR area, has been issued by the METEO-FRANCE office. The gale-force winds are forecast to be present off the coast of Morocco, until 16/0000 UTC. Please, refer to the High Seas Forecast at the website: www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/m etarea2, or the website: http://www.gmdss.org/bulletins/METAREA2.HIGH_SEAS_WARNING.1911.14 19120119262.html, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea near 10N14W, to 08N15W, and 05N22W. The ITCZ continues from 05N22W, to 04N27W, 06N32W, 07N37W, 07N40W. The ITCZ becomes disconnected. The ITCZ continues along the Equator/01S, from 40W to 49W. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate, and isolated strong, is from 06N to 04S between 34W and 50W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is in the remainder of the area that is from 10N southward from 60W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... A dissipating cold front passes through the Straits of Florida, to 24N83W. The front becomes dissipating stationary, from 24N83W, to 25N90W and 24N95W. A surface trough continues from 24N95W, and it curves to the northern coastal areas of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. A northeast-to-southwest oriented surface trough is in the coastal plains and the coastal waters of the western sections of the Yucatan Peninsula. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds are to the south of the line that runs from the coastal waters of SW Louisiana, to 26N90W to the Florida west coast along 27N. Isolated moderate is from 26N southward. Scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is in the NE section of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico, between the two surface troughs. The current dissipating stationary front, from the Straits of Florida to the Bay of Campeche, will move northward and dissipate, through Sunday. Moderate to fresh easterly wind flow will persist in most areas, into early next week, as high pressure builds to the north of the area. CARIBBEAN SEA... The monsoon trough passes through Colombia near 11N74W, through Panama about 80 nm to the north of its border with Colombia, beyond southern Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. An upper level ridge extends from northern Colombia to central Nicaragua. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is in Colombia, from 120 nm to 240 nm to the south of the monsoon trough, between 74W and 76W. An upper level trough passes through 17N60W in the Atlantic Ocean, toward the ABC Islands that are off the coast of Venezuela. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery, from 12N northward from 75W eastward. Broken to overcast low level clouds, and isolated moderate rainshowers, cover the rest of the Caribbean Sea. The clouds and isolated moderate precipitation are moving with the surface-to-low level wind flow. The scatterometer winds show that strong NE winds are within 180 nm of the coast of Colombia between 72W and 78W. Sea heights that range from 6 feet to 8 feet are within 360 nm of the coast of Colombia between 71W and 83W. Strong NE-to-E winds are within 60 nm to the north of Honduras from 85W westward. The sea heights in the same region are ranging from 2 feet to 4 feet. The current Atlantic Ocean high pressure ridge, that is extending W-SW to the central Bahamas, will support fresh to strong trade winds in the south central Caribbean Sea through early Saturday. The wind speeds and the sea heights will diminish gradually, late on Saturday and Sunday, as the high pressure shifts eastward and weakens. The trade winds will increase in the south central Caribbean Sea on Monday and Tuesday, as high pressure builds in the W Atlantic Ocean. ATLANTIC OCEAN A warning for gale-force winds, in the AGADIR area, has been issued by the METEO-FRANCE office. The gale-force winds are forecast to be present off the coast of Morocco, until 16/0000 UTC. A dissipating cold front passes through 31N60W to 29N71W, through the Bahamas near 24N76W, and through the Straits of Florida to 24N83W in the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated to widely scattered moderate rainshowers, are within 470 nm to the north of the line that passes through 31N50W 27N60W 24N70W, to the coast of Cuba near 21N. A surface ridge extends from a 1025 mb high pressure center that is near 32N30W, to 29N41W, to 24N57W, and to 24N70W. The scatterometer winds show that fresh to strong NE winds are within 160 nm to the east of the U.S.A. coast from 28N northward. The sea heights are reaching 6 feet from 20N northward between 60W and 70W, and they are ranging from 6 feet to 8 feet from 26N northward from 70W westward. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 16N northward 47W eastward, associated with a nearby upper level trough. The current cold front extends from 31N71W to near Jupiter in Florida. The front will move southward, slowly, and weaken through Saturday, reaching from 29N65W to the central Bahamas on Saturday evening. The front will dissipate gradually through early Tuesday, as it becomes aligned along an E-to-W line, along 26N. The wind speeds will increase, to the north of 25N and to the west of 70W, by late Tuesday, as high pressure builds in the W Atlantic Ocean. $$ mt/SS