000 AXNT20 KNHC 131006 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Thu May 13 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...Special Features... Gale Warning E of 35W: The pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and lower pressures over W Africa will support gale force N to NE winds off the coast of Morocco. Meteo-France has continued a Gale Warning for Agadir through at least 14/00Z. The forecast calls for N winds of strong to near gale, locally gale close to the coast with rough to very rough seas. Refer to the High Seas Forecast at their website: www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo- marine/bulletin/grandlarge/metarea2 for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough remains inland in Africa. The ITCZ is along 01N between 40W and 50W. A surface trough is along 10N17W to 01N23W. A second surface trough is along 05N28W to 02N29W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted south of 06N between 23W and 48W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front passes through northern Florida to the big bend of Florida, then westward to the Mississippi delta in Louisiana. From there, the front is stationary across the western Gulf to near Veracruz Mexico. Numerous showers and isolated strong thunderstorms associated with the front have diminished during the past 3-4 hours near the coast of Mexico. Scattered showers and multi-layered overcast skies prevail across most of the Gulf of Mexico, south and east of the frontal boundary. ASCAT data this morning showed fresh northerly winds along the coast of Mexico west of the front, and moderate to fresh northerly winds north of the front off the coast of Mississippi. Seas are 4 to 5 ft in the western Gulf, and 1-3 ft in the eastern Gulf. The cold front will reach from Fort Myers, Florida to 25N94W to Veracruz Mexico on Fri, stall from the Straits of Florida into the west-central Gulf by Fri night, then lift northward and dissipate through Sun. Moderate to fresh easterly flow will persist across the basin into early next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... The monsoon trough is south of 10N in the SW Caribbean across Panama and Costa Rica. No organized areas of convection are noted in the region, only isolated passing showers in the prevailing trade wind flow. The pressure gradient from a high pressure ridge along 28N to a low over Colombia is contributing fresh to strong NE to E trades over the south-central Caribbean and fresh to moderate trade winds elsewhere, including the Gulf of Honduras. Seas are 8 to 10 ft in the south-central Caribbean and 4-7 ft elsewhere. High pressure north of the region will support fresh to strong trade winds in the south-central Caribbean through Sat. Winds and seas will gradually diminish Sun and Mon as the high pressure shifts eastward and weakens. ATLANTIC OCEAN See the Special Features section for more information on a Gale Warning near Agadir. A cold front extends west-southwest from a surface low near 33N70W to near Jacksonville Florida. Widespread showers and a few embedded thunderstorms associated with the front are noted north of 28N between 73W and 81W. Scatterometer data shows fresh to strong NE winds north of the front. Elsewhere, a broad ridge and fair weather conditions span across the entire subtropical Atlantic Ocean. The ridge axis extends from high pressure near 32N29W to 27N65W to 28N77W. Winds are light to gentle in the vicinity of the ridge axis, and moderate to fresh trade winds are generally south of 20N across the tropical Atlantic. Seas are 7-8 ft north of the cold front, 4 to 6 ft elsewhere north of 20N, and 6-7 ft south of 20N. The cold front will move east of northern Florida this morning, extend from Bermuda to South Florida on Fri, and from 31N65W to the Straits of Florida Sat. The front will stall and dissipate north of Hispaniola Sun and Mon. High pressure will continue across the remainder of the region through Sun. $$ Mundell