000 AXNT20 KNHC 121023 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Wed May 12 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...Special Features... Gale Warning E of 35W: The pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and lower pressures over W Africa will support fresh to strong winds N of 20N and within about 150 nm of the coast of W Africa off Agadir, Morocco. Meteo-France has continued a Gale Warning for Agadir from 11/18Z through 13/00Z. The forecast calls for northerly winds Force 8 in the Beaufort Wind Scale with gusts to gale force at times and rough seas. Refer to the High Seas Forecast at their website: www.meteofrance.com/previsions- meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/metarea2 for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N12W to 03N17W. No ITCZ was discernible from scatterometer data. A surface trough is along 24W/25W from the Equator to 03N. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 06N between 18W and 39W. GULF OF MEXICO... A frontal boundary is along the northern Gulf coast of the U.S., stretching from central Georgia across Alabama and Mississippi to coastal sections of Louisiana and Texas. An area of scattered moderate to strong convection associated with the front is near the southern coast of Texas from 25N to 28N between 95W and 98W. Scattered showers and a few embedded thunderstorms are elsewhere in the NW Gulf. Scatterometer and buoy data show fresh E to SE winds in the eastern Bay of Campeche near the Yucatan peninsula, associated with a surface trough analyzed from 21N90W to 19N92W. For the forecast, a cold front will push southward in the western Gulf later today, then gradually stall and weaken across the southern Gulf through Fri. Moderate to fresh easterly winds are expected across the basin Fri through Sun. CARIBBEAN SEA... High pressure centered northeast of the region is supporting fresh to strong trades in the central and eastern Caribbean, with the highest winds near Colombia. Recent scatterometer data showed 25-30 kt NE to E winds north of Colombia from 11N to 14N between 73W and 77W. Seas generated by these winds are generally 7 to 9 ft, except 8-11 ft north of Colombia. A few showers are noted in the SW Caribbean, south of 10N. Isolated trade wind showers prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, the high pressure north of the region will support fresh to strong trade winds in the south-central Caribbean through Fri. Fresh to strong winds are also expected in the Gulf of Honduras tonight. ATLANTIC OCEAN See the Special Features section for more information on a Gale Warning near Agadir. A ridge extends from high pressure centered near 31N39W to the Bahamas. Recent buoy observations and scatterometer data shows moderate to fresh NE to E trade winds south of a line from 28N38W to 23N55W to 23N70W, and gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds north of the aforementioned line. Seas are generally 6 to 7 ft in the area of moderate to fresh trades noted above, and 3 to 6 ft elsewhere across the waters north of 20N. No areas of organized convection are evident from satellite imagery, only isolated trade wind showers are noted. For the marine forecast west of 65W, a cold front will move southward across the western Atlantic Thu and Fri, reaching the waters south of 27N on Sat. High pressure will follow the front this weekend. $$ Mundell