260 AXNT20 KNHC 120559 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Wed May 12 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0540 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gale Warning E of 35W: The surface pressure gradient, between the Atlantic Ocean ridge, and comparatively lower pressures in Africa, will be supporting gale-force winds, off the coast of Agadir, in Morocco. The Meteo-France high seas forecast consists of northerly winds of Force 8, until 13/0000 UTC. Please, refer to the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast, that is listed on the website: www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo- marine/bulletin/grandlarge/metarea2, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra Leone near 07N12W, to 05N13W, and 03N17W. No ITCZ was discernible. A surface trough is along 23W/25W from the Equator to 05N. A surface trough is to the south of the Equator along 04S32W, 02S35W, at the Equator along 39W. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate, and isolated to widely scattered moderate, are from 05N southward between 43W and 52W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is from 08N southward from 43W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough passes through south central Georgia, through the Florida Big Bend, into the north central Gulf of Mexico, to the eastern coastal waters of Louisiana. An inland stationary front is passing through central Louisiana. Precipitation: numerous strong is in SE Louisiana. A cold front is in south central Texas. Precipitation: numerous strong is in the coastal waters of Texas and in northern Mexico adjacent to Texas, within 150 nm to the south of the cold front between 95W and 100W. Fresh SE winds are within 100 nm to 150 nm to the NW of the NW coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. A surface trough extends from the NW corner of the Yucatan Peninsula, southwestward, to the northern part of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are across the western Gulf of Mexico. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds prevail in the eastern half of the Gulf of Mexico. Building high pressure in the SE CONUS will push a late-season cold front across the Gulf on Wednesday. The cold front is expected to extend across the Straits of Florida and the southern Gulf of Mexico by late Friday. Fresh to strong northerly winds will follow the front. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level trough extends from the SE Bahamas, through the Windward Passage, across Jamaica, to the east central coast of Nicaragua. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is within 100 nm on either side of the upper level trough. Upper level moisture is curving northeastward in the Caribbean Sea, to the east and southeast of the comparatively drier air that is around the upper level trough. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is in the southern half of Nicaragua. The monsoon trough passes through 11N74W in northern Colombia, through the border of Colombia and Panama, beyond 07N80W, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: numerous strong is within 75 nm on the NW side of the monsoon trough between 76W and 78W, and within 135 nm on the SE side of the monsoon trough between 74W and 79W. The precipitation covers the waters that are between Colombia and Panama including in the Gulf of Uraba, and inland sections of northern Colombia. Scattered to numerous strong is within a 30 nm radius of the western coast of Panama along 82W. E to NE strong winds cover the Caribbean Sea from 18N southward between 66W and 81W. The sea heights in the same area are ranging from 8 feet to 9 feet. Fresh-to-strong easterly winds are within 135 nm to the north of the coast of Honduras from 86W westward, to the coasts of Belize and Mexico. Expect sea heights to be reaching a maximum of 5 feet to 6 feet in the same area as the fresh-to-strong easterly winds. Rainshowers are possible, elsewhere, in the areas of scattered- to-broken low level clouds, that are moving with the surface-to- low level wind flow. High pressure, located to the N of the Caribbean Sea, combined with the Colombia low pressure, will support fresh to strong winds in the south central Caribbean Sea through Friday. Fresh to strong winds are expected also in the Gulf of Honduras tonight and again on Wednesday night. ATLANTIC OCEAN High level clouds are moving from Florida, eastward, into the Atlantic Ocean, from 24N northward from 70W westward. A surface ridge extends from a 1027 mb high pressure center that is near 33N21W, to a second 1027 mb high pressure center that is near 32N38W, to a 1026 mb high pressure center that is near 31N55W, to 30N60W, to 26N74W, toward south Florida. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward from the eastern coast of the U.S.A., eastward. A surface ridge dominates the forecast waters. A cold front will move southward across the western Atlantic Ocean on Wednesday. Weak low pressure is expected to develop along the frontal boundary, allowing the front to move across the northern forecast waters on Thursday and Friday, reaching the waters S of 27N on Saturday. High pressure will follow the front. $$ mt/dm