000 AXNT20 KNHC 100608 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Mon May 10 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...Special Features... Caribbean Gale: Ridge north of the area will interact with low pressure near the coast of Colombia. The tight pressure gradient over the basin will support fresh to strong trades with frequent gusts to gale force winds near the coast of Colombia tonight. This conditions will continue over south-central Caribbean through Thursday night. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through Sierra Leone near 08N13W, then continues SW to near 01N25W. The ITCZ extends from 01N25W to 02N38W to the Amazon River near 00N49W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from the Equator to 05N between 19W-28W, and within 200 nm N of the ITCZ between 39W and 51W. GULF OF MEXICO... A ridge dominates most of Gulf waters anchored by 1026 mb high pressure located in the western Atlantic near Bermuda. Generally moderate S to SE winds prevail over the eastern half of the Gulf basin while moderate to fresh S to SE winds are noted over the western half, increasing over the NW portion. Seas are generally 4 to 6 ft W of 90W, except locally 6 feet over the NW Gulf. East of 90W, seas are 3 to 4 ft. Other than some scattered showers across the Florida Everglades, fair weather continues over the entire Gulf. Debri cirrus clouds extend E to near 94W across the western Gulf due to thunderstorm activity over central Mexico. In the forecast, moderate to locally fresh southerly winds will continue tonight across the NW Gulf. A surface trough currently from 23N88W to 17N91W, will continue to develop over the Yucatan Peninsula each evening and dissipate over the SW Gulf by morning. Moderate to fresh easterly winds will be associated with this trough. A stationary front will linger across the northern Gulf coast Tue and Wed with showers occurring along the boundary. Building high pressure across the SE CONUS will push the front across the Gulf on Thu and is expected to exit the basin by Fri night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Scatterometer data indicated fresh to locally strong E to NE trades occurring over the south-central Caribbean Sea, particularly S of 15N between 67W and 77W. Generally moderate trades currently prevail elsewhere across the basin. A low-level trough across the southern Caribbean along 77W continues to interact with a diffluent pattern aloft east of the trough to support scattered moderate convection S of 18N between 61W and 72W. Seas are 6 to 8 ft over the south-central Caribbean Sea, with locally 10 ft north of the Venezuela and mainly 3 to 5 ft elsewhere. A ridge north of the area will support fresh to strong trade winds and building seas over the south-central Caribbean through Thu night. By Fri, fresh winds will still prevail in this region with a smaller area of strong winds near the coast of Colombia. Winds will also pulse fresh to strong nightly in the Gulf of Honduras through Thu night. A surge in moisture is bringing showers and thunderstorms to the eastern Caribbean which is expected to continue through Mon night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough extends from the frontal boundary near 30N56W and continues to 27N62W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted within 100 n mi of the front to the E of 59W. A 1026 mb high pressure is centered near 31N63W producing light to gentle winds N of 28N W of 60W. Mainly moderate winds are noted elsewhere W of 75W. A broad ridge of high pressure anchored by a 1028 mb high centered near 31N43W dominates much of the remainder of the tropical and subtropical Atlantic basin, producing moderate to fresh trades S of 24N, and mostly gentle to moderate winds N of 24N. The only other notable features in the area are a surface trough extending from 25N29W to 27N44W producing isolated moderate convection, and a Second trough across the Canary Islands with scattered showers in the vicinity. Seas are generally 3 to 5 ft N of 24N, and 5 to 7 ft S of 24N. A ridge dominates the forecast waters. The next cold front will move southward across the western Atlantic on Wed and stall on Thu. A low will develop along the front on Fri and continue pushing south and east through Fri night. && MTorres