000 AXNT20 KNHC 082245 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sun May 9 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2200 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough exits W Africa near 11N15W to 02N25W to 03N30W. The ITCZ extends from 03N30W to the mouth of the Amazon River Basin near 00N51W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N-04N between 22W-50W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen from 07N to 13N between 56W-62W. GULF OF MEXICO... A stalled cold front extends from Andros Island, Bahamas across the Straits of Florida and the NW coast of Cuba to just offshore of the NE tip of the Yucatan Peninsula. Isolated thunderstorms were seen N of the boundary between the northern Florida Keys and Andros Island. A 1021 mb surface high pressure over NW Florida extends broad ridging over much of the Gulf of Mexico. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds prevail across the S central and W Gulf this afternoon where seas are 3-5 ft. Gentle to light anticyclonic winds prevail across the NE Gulf, where seas are 1-3 ft. Expect SE to S winds over the western half of the Gulf to increase slightly to fresh tonight through Sun morning, with seas as high as 7 ft off the coast of Texas. Looking ahead, a stationary front will linger across the northern Gulf coast Tue and Wed with showers occurring along the boundary. CARIBBEAN SEA... A low to mid-level trough moving across the Windward Islands and far southeastern Caribbean Sea is accompanied by scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms described above, some producing heavy rain. In the far SW Caribbean, scattered moderate convection is seen within 60 nm north of the coast of Panama. Mostly dry conditions prevail across the remainder of the basin. A modest pressure gradient across the basin is producing moderate tradewinds N of 16N and fresh to strong trades S of 16N, strongest along the N coast of Colombia. The ridge north of the area will support fresh to strong trades in the central Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras tonight through Wednesday as high pressure strengthens. Seas will build to 7-10 ft in the central Caribbean by early Mon. Showers are expected to increase in coverage across the southeastern Caribbean tonight through early Mon, as the low to mid-level trough moves westward across the southern Caribbean. ATLANTIC OCEAN... West of 60W: A cold front extends from just east of Bermuda to 25N75W to across the N central Bahamas and Andros Island, where it has become stationary. Isolated moderate tstorms are along the front across the Bahamas, while scattered showers and isolated moderate tstorms are within 90 nm either side of the front elsewhere. Moderate NE winds are north of the front, over and east of the Bahamas. Gentle SE winds prevail over the Old Bahama Channel. The front will weaken across the region by Sun night into Mon. A 1021 mb surface high pressure over NW Florida extends a narrow ridge eastward over the waters to the north of the NW Bahamas, with gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds. Seas are 5-7 ft north of 28N between 60W-75W, 1-3 ft in the Old Bahama Channel and in the Bahamas, and 3-5 ft elsewhere west of 60W. Looking ahead, another front will drift south of 30N across NE Florida Tue night into Wed. East of 60W: Over the central subtropical Atlantic, broad surface ridging is anchored by a 1027 mb high pressure near 29N45W. A surface ridge axis with moderate winds extends WSW to 25N65W to the Turks and Caicos Islands. An upper-level low is centered near 24N51W. Upper-level divergence to the SE of the associated troughing of the upper-low is enhancing convection moving across the Windward islands. A recent ASCAT pass shows fresh trades across the tropical Atlantic from 05N-20N between 30W-60W, where seas are 5-7 ft. Wind speeds over the NE Atlantic from 20N-30N are gentle to moderate, due to ridging. Seas across the eastern and central Atlantic are less than 5 ft from 22N-30N. $$ Stripling