000 AXNT20 KNHC 050539 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Wed May 5 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Guinea near 11N15W southwestward to 02N25W. The ITCZ begins near 04S30W and continues northwestward to 01S45W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from the equator to 09N between 09W to 22W. Scattered moderate convection is also observed from 02N to 04N between 28W to 31W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front moved into NW extending from Cameron, LA to South Padre Island near the southern tip of Texas. The latest scatterometer pass depicts moderate NE winds behind the front, while gentle E winds are observed to the east. Fresh to strong SE winds prevail in the central Gulf, with moderate to fresh return flow elsewhere. Seas are 5-7 ft in the central Gulf and 3- 5 ft within the Bay of Campeche and along the Florida coast including within the Florida Straits. Smoke and haze from agricultural fires over southern Mexico and Central America may reduce visibilities at times over the western and central Gulf. The cold front will reach from near Mobile, Alabama to the SW Gulf early Wed, then stall over the northern Gulf through Wed night. The fresh to strong southeast winds will diminish to moderate to fresh speeds Wed. The cold front will move southeastward across the rest of the basin Thu through Fri. Fresh to strong northeast winds will follow in behind the front tonight into Wed. Moderate to fresh southeast winds are expected across the western and central Gulf this weekend and into early next week as high pressure in the wake of the front shifts eastward. CARIBBEAN SEA... The gradient between high pressure north of 31N in the western Atlantic and lower pressures over Central America is supporting fresh to locally strong SE winds in the northwest Caribbean within the Gulf of Honduras with seas up to 7 ft. Trade winds are moderate to fresh across the remainder of the Caribbean with seas ranging from 4-6 ft. Scattered convection associated with the Pacific monsoon trough axis extending across Panama is located in the southwestern Caribbean offshore of Panamas and Costa Rica. Smoke and haze from agricultural and wildfires over Central America are reducing visibilities below 6 nm in the Gulf of Honduras. The ridge north of the area will support moderate trade winds across much of the basin this week. Fresh to strong SE winds will continue in the northwestern Caribbean, including the Gulf of Honduras through Wed night. Hazy sky conditions and areas of smoke due to agricultural fires in Central America are expected to continue through the end of the week. Stronger trade winds are likely over the central Caribbean this weekend and into early next week as Atlantic high pressure strengthens. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A pre-frontal trough along the SE U.S. is allowing for isolated convection to linger within 100 nm offshore of northeast Florida in the western Atlantic, north of 29N. Winds ahead of the trough are moderate from the south. Surface riding prevails extending westward from a 1023 mb high located near 28N63W. High pressure dominates the northern tropical Atlantic, allowing for gentle to moderate trade wind easterly flow over most of the basin. An area of fresh to locally strong NE winds is in the far eastern Atlantic near the Canary Islands, extending to 20N. Seas north of 20N and west of 60W are 4-6 ft with mainly 5-6 ft seas elsewhere. West of 65W, the gradient associated with a high pressure ridge near 28N will support gentle to moderate winds across most of the region through Wed night. A cold front is expected to move over the far northwest waters early Thu and reach from near 31N76W to the Straits of Florida early on Fri. The portion of the front north of 25N will continue eastward to the far eastern waters Sat night while gradually weakening, and as high pressure builds over the area into early next week. Scattered showers and isolated will precede the front. $$ Mora