000 AXNT20 KNHC 042201 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Wed May 5 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2130 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Guinea near 11N14W to 04N24W to 01S30W, where it transitions the ITCZ, to 01S34W to 00N43W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is located from 00N-08N between 07W-32W. GULF OF MEXICO... Fresh to strong SE-S winds are in the central Gulf, with moderate to fresh return flow elsewhere. Seas are 5-8 ft west of 87W, and 3-6 ft east of 87W. No significant precipitation is currently occurring across the region. Smoke and haze from agricultural fires over southern Mexico and Central America may reduce visibilities at times over the western and central Gulf. A cold front will move off the Texas coast by early this evening, reach from near Mobile, Alabama to the SW Gulf early Wed, then stall over the northern Gulf through Wed night. The fresh to strong southeast winds will diminish to moderate to fresh speeds Wed. The cold front will move southeastward across the rest of the basin Thu through Fri. Fresh to strong northeast winds will follow in behind the front tonight into Wed. Moderate to fresh southeast winds are expected across the western and central Gulf this weekend and into early next week as high pressure in the wake of the front shifts eastward. CARIBBEAN SEA... The gradient between high pressure north of 31N in the western Atlantic and lower pressures over Central America is supporting fresh to locally strong SE winds in the northwest Caribbean. Trade winds are moderate to fresh across the remainder of the Caribbean. Seas are 6-8 ft in the northwest Caribbean and 3-6 ft elsewhere. The northeast Pacific monsoon trough extends across Panama and northwest Colombia. Scattered moderate convection is located within 90 nm of the South American coast, across the basin. Smoke and haze from agricultural and wildfires over Central America are reducing visibilities below 6 nm in the Gulf of Honduras. A ridge north of the area will support moderate trade winds across much of the basin this week. Fresh to strong SE winds will continue over the northwestern Caribbean, including the Gulf of Honduras through Wed night. Hazy sky conditions and areas of smoke due to agricultural fires in Central America are noted over most the northwestern Caribbean. These conditions are likely to change little through the end of the week. Stronger trade winds are likely over the central Caribbean this weekend and into early next week as Atlantic high pressure strengthens. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Convection previously north of the Bahamas has diminished this afternoon. Surface ridging extends westward from 1025 mb high pressure north of the area near 34N44W to central Florida. NE to E trades south of the ridge are generally moderate. A weak trough extends from 31N48W to 28N54W. Another surface trough extends from 31N28W to 21N33W. Seas are generally 4-7 ft across the tropical N Atlantic, except 2-4 ft north of 27N and west of 60W. West of 65W, the gradient associated with a high pressure ridge near 27N will support gentle to moderate winds across most of the region through Wed night. A cold front is expected to move over the far northwest waters early Thu and reach from near 31N76W to the Straits of Florida early on Fri. The portion of the front north of 25N will continue eastward to the far eastern waters Sat night while gradually weakening, and as high pressure builds over the area into early next week. Scattered showers and isolated will precede the front. East of 65W, a weakening ridge will allow trade winds to diminish Wed through Fri, becoming gentle to moderate. Seas will generally be 3-6 ft across the tropical N Atlantic. No significant deep convection is expected away from the ITCZ/monsoon trough. $$ KONARIK