000 AXNT20 KNHC 032305 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Mon May 3 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis extends from through coastal sections of Sierra Leone near 08N11W to 01N20W to 01N30W, where it transitions the ITCZ to 01N50W. Scattered moderate convection is located south of 08N east of 30W. GULF OF MEXICO... The pressure gradient between a high near Bermuda and low pressure over the south-central U.S. is producing moderate to fresh southeast to south winds across the area, with a small area of strong southeast winds to the north of the Yucatan Peninsula. Seas are mostly 3-5 ft across the area, except for 5-7 ft north of the Yucatan Peninsula and 1-3 ft east of 85W. No significant precipitation is currently occurring across the region. For the forecast, fresh to occasionally strong southeast to south will prevail through Tue over much of the Gulf. A weak cold front will cross the NW Gulf Tue night and extend from the Louisiana coast to the SW Gulf on Wed before stalling and weakening. Fresh northerly winds will briefly develop behind this front Tue night into Wed over the far western Gulf. Another weak cold front may cross the northern Gulf Thu night into Fri before stalling and weakening over the central Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... A mid-level ridge over the Bahamas and Greater Antilles is producing subsidence and very dry air over the Caribbean Sea north of about 14N as shown by GOES-16 water vapor channels. In the southwestern Caribbean, satellite imagery shows scattered showers and thunderstorms south of 13N W of 81W. The tail-end of an upper-level trough in combination with modest low-level convergence is helping to trigger off a small area of scattered moderate convection over the southeastern Caribbean. ASCAT data depicts moderate to fresh trade winds across the basin, with the exception of fresh, to at times strong, southeast to south winds in the Gulf of Honduras. Fresh east winds are noted within 120 nm offshore the coast of Colombia between 72W- 76W. Seas are 3-5 ft across most of the basin, except 5-8 ft in the Gulf of Honduras and 1-3 ft south of Cuba and in the far southwestern Caribbean. Dense smoke from agricultural fires in northern Honduras and in Belize is noted on GOES-16 to be spreading northward over the Gulf of Honduras and to just northeast of Belize. Visibility may be reduced due to the smoke. For the forecast, a western Atlantic high pressure ridge along 27N-28N will support moderate to fresh trades across much of the basin this week. Fresh to strong south SE winds with locally higher seas will change little over the Gulf of Honduras through Wed night, then begin to diminish through Fri as the pressure gradient relaxes across the region. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface ridge extends from a 1025 mb high center located north of the area near 34N41W west-southwestward to 28N73W and to central Florida. Earlier ASCAT data showed generally light to gentle winds north of 25N between 35W-75W. Higher wind speeds of moderate to fresh intensity are north of 25N and west of 75W. Farther east, a stationary front extends from near 32N47W to 28N57W, but little shower activity exists along the boundary. An occluded 1018 mb low is near 31N25W, but like the front to its west no significant deep convection is occurring near the low at the moment. For the forecast, the western Atlantic high pressure ridge will generally support moderate winds through Wed, with locally fresh winds north of Hispaniola. A cold front is expected to move off the southeastern U.S. coast Wed night into Thu, then move across the waters north of 24N through Fri night while gradually weakening. In the far eastern Atlantic, north to northeast winds will increase to fresh to strong speeds through Wed night offshore Morocco and Western Sahara, occasionally reaching near gale force off Morocco. $$ Aguirre/Cangialosi