000 AXNT20 KNHC 031804 RRA TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Mon May 3 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis extends from through coastal sections of Sierra Leone near 07N11W to 02N20W to 01N29W, where recent scatterometer data indicates that it transitions the ITCZ to 01N40W and to 02N50W. Numerous strong convection is from the Equator to 07N E of 14W. Numerous moderate to strong within within 180 nm north of trough between 13W-17W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 180 nm north of axis between 20W-25W and within 120 nm north of trough between 25W-29W. GULF OF MEXICO... The gradient between high pressure near Bermuda and low pressure over the south-central U.S. is producing moderate to fresh southeast to south winds over the area, with a small area of strong southeast SE winds to the north of the Yucatan Peninsula. Seas are 3-5 ft across the basin, on average, except for 5-7 ft north of the Yucatan Peninsula and 1-3 ft east of 85W. No significant precipitation is currently occurring over the basin. Low stratus clouds and areas of haze are seen in the NW Gulf extending about 120 nm offshore from the coast of Texas, reducing visibilities to 2-4 miles in some spots. For the forecast, fresh to occasionally strong southeast to south will prevail through Tue over much of the Gulf. A weak cold front will cross the NW Gulf Tue night and extend from the Louisiana coast to the SW Gulf on Wed before stalling and weakening. Fresh northerly winds will briefly develop behind this front Tue night into Wed over the far western Gulf. Another weak cold front may cross the northern Gulf Thu night into Fri before stalling and weakening over the central Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... A mid-level ridge over the Bahamas and Greater Antilles is producing subsidence and very dry air over the Caribbean Sea north of about 14N as shown by GOES-16 water vapor channels. In the southwestern Caribbean satellite imagery shows scattered showers and thunderstorms south of 13N W of 80W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms south of 11N between the coast of Colombia and 80W. The tail-end of an upper-level trough in combination with modest low-level convergence is helping to trigger off a small area of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection over the southeastern Caribbean that includes the southern Windward Islands as reported in recent surface observations from that part of the sea. Recent ASCAT data depicts moderate to fresh trade winds across the basin, with the exception of fresh, to at times, strong southeast to south winds in the Gulf of Honduras. Fresh east winds are noted within 120 nm offshore the coast of Colombia between 72W- 76W. Seas are 3-5 ft across most of the basin, except 5-8 ft in the Gulf of Honduras and 1-3 ft south of Cuba and in the far southwestern Caribbean. For the forecast, a western Atlantic high pressure ridge along 27N-28N will support moderate to fresh trades across much of the basin this week. Fresh to strong south SE winds with locally higher seas will change little over the Gulf of Honduras through Wed night, then begin to diminish through Fri as the pressure gradient relaxes across the region. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Recent ASCAT data depicts a surface ridge that extends from a 1025 mb high center located north of the area near 34N41W west- southwestward to 28N73W and to central Florida. The ASCAT data also shows generally light to gentle winds north of 25N between 37W- 75W. Higher wind speeds of moderate to fresh intensity are north of 25N and west of 75W. Moderate to fresh trade winds are south of 22N west of 63W and over some areas south E of 63W. Seas west of 63W are 3-5 ft, and 4-6 ft east of 63W. Farther east, a stationary front extends from near 32N49W to 29N55W, then begins to dissipate to near 28N63W. A rather sharp upper-level trough over this same area is enhancing convection east of the front north of 29N between 46W-49W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are within 150 nm south of the front between 49W- 54W. Seas north of 27N between 45W-60W have subsided to 5-6 ft as the northwest there decays. A 1018 mb low is near 32N24W, with an occluded front extending from it to 31N22W, then transitions to a cold front to 28N33W and to 27N25W, where it begins to dissipate to near 27N29W. An ASCAT pass over that part of the Atlantic has mainly fresh southeast to south winds ahead of the cold front north of 30N and east to 21W. Isolated showers are possible near the cold front. For the forecast, the western Atlantic high pressure ridge will generally support moderate winds through Wed, with locally fresh winds north of Hispaniola. A cold front is expected to move off the southeastern U.S. coast Wed night into Thu, then move across the waters north of 24N through Fri night while gradually weakening. In the far eastern Atlantic, north to northeast winds will increase to fresh to strong speeds through Wed night offshore Morocco and Western Sahara, occasionally reaching near gale force off Morocco. $$ Aguirre