000 AXNT20 KNHC 031014 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Mon May 3 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0930 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through coastal sections of Sierra Leone near 07.5N13W to 03N15W to 01N34W. The ITCZ continues from 01N34W to 00N43W to 00N48W. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is noted from 00N-05N between 00W-08W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is seen from 01S-07N between 10W- 28W. Isolated moderate convection is from 00N-07N between 40W-51W. GULF OF MEXICO... The gradient between high pressure near Bermuda and low pressure over the south-central U.S. is producing moderate to fresh SE to S winds over the Gulf, with a small area of strong SE winds to the north of the Yucatan Peninsula. Seas are 3-5 ft across the basin, on average, except for 5-7 ft north of the Yucatan Peninsula and 1-3 ft east of 85W. No significant precipitation is currently occurring over the basin. Low stratus clouds and areas of haze are seen in the NW Gulf extending about 120 nm offshore from the coast of Texas, reducing visibilities to 2-4 miles in some spots. For the forecast, fresh to occasionally strong SE to S winds will prevail through Tue over much of the Gulf. A weak cold front will sink slowly into the NW Gulf Tue night and reach from Louisiana to the SW Gulf Wed afternoon before stalling and weakening. Fresh N winds are expected behind the front Tue night into Wed over the far western Gulf. Winds should diminish to moderate or weaker across the Gulf on Thu. CARIBBEAN SEA... A mid-level ridge over the Bahamas and Greater Antilles is producing subsidence and very dry air over the Caribbean Sea north of 13N, as shown by GOES-16 water vapor channels. In the SW Caribbean, satellite imagery shows scattered moderate showers and tstorms south of 12N between 75W-84W. Some showers also persist in the far SE Caribbean between Bonaire and the southern Windward Islands. Earlier ASCAT data indicated fresh to strong E to SE winds in the Gulf of Honduras, with moderate to fresh trade winds elsewhere. Seas are 3-5 ft across most of the basin, except 5-8 ft in the Gulf of Honduras and 1-3 ft south of Cuba and in the far SW Caribbean. For the forecast, fresh to strong SE trade winds will continue in the Gulf of Honduras through Wed night due to the pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and lower pressures over Central America. Moderate to fresh E trades will continue elsewhere across the basin through at least Fri night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Earlier ASCAT data shows that a surface ridge extends from a 1023 mb high near 31N41W to 28N53W to 27N65W to 28N74W. Light to gentle winds generally prevail north of 25N between 37W-75W. Moderate S winds are north of 25N and west of 75W. Moderate to fresh trade winds are generally south of 23N and west of 60W. Seas west of 65W are 3-5 ft. Farther east, a stationary front extends from 31N50W to 28N65W. Scattered moderate showers and tstorms are noted along and within 120 nm SE of the front, mainly north of 28N and east of 56W. This convective activity is being enhanced by an upper-level trough, which is currently positioned just to the NW of the front. Seas are 6-8 ft north of 27N between 45W-60W, mostly due to NW swell. A cold front extends from 31N22W to 28N27W with mainly moderate wind speeds in the vicinity and minimal precipitation. The tropical Atlantic Ocean south of 23N is experiencing moderate trade winds and 4-6 ft seas. For the forecast, high pressure will reorganize across the W Atlc today and Tue leading to moderate to fresh S winds north of 25N and west of 75W, and moderate to fresh SE tradewinds south of 25N. These winds will relax to gentle or moderate on Wed and Thu. A new cold front will move across the western Atlc waters to the north of the Bahamas on Friday, accompanied by fresh winds. In the far eastern Atlantic, N to NE winds will increase to fresh to strong speeds today through Wed night offshore Morocco and Western Sahara, occasionally reaching near gale force off Morocco. $$ Hagen