000 AXNT20 KNHC 022313 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Mon May 3 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through coastal sections of Liberia near 06N10W to 03N19W. The ITCZ continues from 03N19W to 03N34W to 00N50W. A cluster of moderate to strong convection is approaching the west coast of Africa, and is currently affecting parts of Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is also noted from the equator to 06N between 08W-20W. Elsewhere convection is limited. GULF OF MEXICO... Showers and thunderstorms continue to affect the north-central Gulf, particularly N of 27N between 87W and 90W. A squall line is analyzed in this area. Strong thunderstorms can not be ruled out for this evening over parts of the central Gulf coast. Some of these storms could become severe, with strong gusty winds, frequent lightning and isolated waterspouts. This convective activity is being enhanced by a diffluent pattern aloft. Scatterometer data show fresh to strong southerly winds just ahead of the squall line. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh southerly winds are noted over much of the Gulf. Seas are generally 1-3 ft E of 87W, and W of 95W to the coast of Mexico. Elsewhere, seas of 4-6 ft prevail in a southerly wind flow. Areas of smoke and haze due to ongoing agricultural fires over portions of Central America and Mexico are still noted on visible satellite imagery over the western Gulf mainly S of 26N. This may occasionally reduce visibilities. For the forecast, Fresh to strong SE return flow will prevail through Tue night over much of the Gulf. A weak cold front will sink slowly into the NW Gulf Tue night and reach from Louisiana to the SW Gulf Wed afternoon before stalling and weakening. Winds should diminish to moderate or weaker across the Gulf on Thu and Fri. CARIBBEAN SEA... The edge of a scatterometer pass provided observations of moderate to fresh E-SE winds over the western Caribbean S of 19N and W of 84W. These winds are likely occurring in the Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere, mainly moderate trades prevail, with the of light to gentle winds in the lee of Cuba and over the SW Caribbean. Seas are 4-6 ft in the Gulf of Honduras, 3-4 ft across much of the east and central Caribbean, and 1-3 in the lee of Cuba and the SW Caribbean where winds are weaker. Patches of low level moisture embedded in the trade wind flow are noted across the basin moving westward, and producing isolated to scattered passing showers. As yesterday afternoon, some convective activity is developing over the Greater Antilles due to local effects as daytime heating, local sea breezes and mountain lifting. Narrow lines of clouds, also called streamers are noted in the lee side of the Lesser Antilles. Areas of smoke and haze are observed on visible satellite imagery over the Gulf of Honduras from agricultural fires in Central America. For the forecast, a weak ridge extends from a 1023 mb Bermuda High at 32N65W to the SE United States. The ridge is supporting fresh SE trades over the Gulf of Honduras this afternoon. These winds should increase up to strong tonight through Wed night as the pressure gradient tightens between the Atlantic ridge and lower pressures over Central America. Moderate to fresh E trades will continue elsewhere across the basin through at least Fri night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... W of 65W: A cold front enters the forecast region near 31N50W, then continues SW to near 28N59W where it transitions to a stationary front to NE Florida. Mainly low level clouds with isolated showers are associated with the frontal boundary. Moderate northerly winds are N of the cold front with mainly light to gentle winds on either side of the stationary part of the front. The frontal remnants will drift northward and gradually dissipate tonight. North of the front, a weak high pressure ridge extends from a 1023 mb Bermuda High at 32N65W to the SE United States. High pressure will reorganize across the western Atlantic on Mon and Tue leading to moderate to fresh S winds north of 25N and west of 75W, and moderate to fresh SE tradewinds south of 25N. These winds will relax to gentle or moderate on Wed and Thu. A new cold front is anticipated to reach the Atlantic waters north of the Bahamas on Fri. E of 65W: Another cold front is clipping the discussion area near 3ON30W. The remainder of the Atlantic is under the influence of a surface ridge, with a second center of 1023 mb located near 31N39W. A weak upper-level low situated near 27N38W is producing some shower activity. Moderate trade winds prevail across the tropical Atlantic east of 60W, where seas are 4-5 ft. Fresh to strong N winds are occurring between the west coast of Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands where seas are 8-9 ft. A low pressure located S of the easternmost island of the Azores will move southward into the forecast area on Mon and open-up into a trough near 27W-28W. $$ GR