000 AXNT20 KNHC 021801 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through coastal sections of Liberia near 05N09W to 02N19W. The ITCZ continues from 02N19W to 00N47W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection prevails between Africa and South America, generally from 05S-07N E of 25W, and scattered showers W of 25W. GULF OF MEXICO... As of 1500 UTC, the squall line over the northern Gulf has weaken. Strong thunderstorms can not be ruled out for this afternoon. Some of these storms could become severe, with strong wind gusts, frequent lightning and isolated waterspouts. A surface trough has been analyzed from the Louisiana coast near 30N90W to 245N92W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are within 30 nm of the trough. The thunderstorms are being enhanced by upper-level diffluence, due to the positioning of a mid-upper level shortwave trough over Texas. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh southerly winds are noted over the western Gulf and fresh SE winds NW of the Yucatan Peninsula. Gentle E-SE winds are east of 86W. Gentle wind speeds are also in the SW Gulf. Seas of 4-5 ft prevail from the NW Yucatan to the Texas/Louisiana border, with 3-4 ft seas over the west- central and SW Gulf. Seas are 1-3 ft in the eastern Gulf. Fresh southerly return flow will prevail early this week over much of the basin, with occasional locally strong SE winds over the south-central and SW Gulf Mon night and Tue. Thunderstorms associated could be strong to severe with gusty winds. Areas of smoke and haze are possible in the SW Gulf from agricultural fires in SE Mexico. Fresh to strong SE return flow will prevail through Tue night over much of the Gulf. A weak cold front will sink slowly into the NW Gulf Tue night and reach from Louisiana to the SW Gulf Wed night before stalling and weakening. CARIBBEAN SEA... Subsidence and dry air cover the Caribbean Sea, as shown by GOES-16 water vapor channels. There are scattered showers over the far SE Caribbean, from a line extending from the coast of Venezuela to Guadeloupe Island. Isolated showers and tstorms are noted in the far SW Caribbean south 11N to the coast of Panama and Costa Rica. The remainder of the Caribbean is free of precipitation due to the dry air. ASCAT pass showed moderate trades across most of the Caribbean, except for light to gentle winds in the lee of Cuba and gentle NE-E winds in the far SW Caribbean. The ASCAT pass missed the Gulf of Honduras, where fresh E winds are likely occurring. Seas are 4-6 ft in the Gulf of Honduras and 2-4 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, the ridge is over Bermuda is contributing to fresh E to SE trades over the Gulf of Honduras today. These winds should increase up to strong tonight through Wed night as the pressure gradient tightens between the Atlantic ridge and lower pressures over Central America. Moderate to fresh trades will continue elsewhere across the basin through at least Thu night. Areas of smoke and haze are possible in the SW Gulf of Honduras from agricultural fires in Central America. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front passes through 29N54W to 26N60W to 28N74W, where it transitions to a stationary front to 29N80W and continues across the Florida Peninsula into the Gulf of Mexico. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are within 45 nm of the front mainly east of 60W. Moderate N winds are north of this front E of 57W. Two surface ridge axis are located to the north and southeast of the front. The ridge axis to the east extends from 57W to 19W. Ridge E of 60W, light easterly winds are noted with seas 4 to 6 ft south of 28N and 8-9 ft north of 29N. In the western Atlantic near the coast of FL and the Bahamas, seas remain around 2 to 4 ft. For the forecast west of 65W, the weakening cold front is stalling today. The frontal remnants will then drift northward and gradually dissipate tonight. South of the front, high pressure will reorganize across the W Atlc Mon and Tue leading to moderate to fresh S winds north of 25N and west of 75W, and moderate to fresh SE tradewinds south of 24N. These winds will relax to gentle to moderate on Wed and Thu. Farther east, a weak upper-level low near 27N40W is producing some showers. Moderate trade winds prevail from 07N-22N across the tropical Atlantic east of 60W, where seas are 4-5 ft. Strong N winds are occurring within 90 nm of the coast of Morocco, where seas are 8-9 ft. These winds will persist through Mon. $$ MTorres