000 AXNT20 KNHC 302139 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sat May 1 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1910 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 06N11W to 13N19W. The ITCZ continues from 13N19W to 01N31W to 01N49W. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is noted from 01N-07N between 07W-24W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 01N to 05N between 24W and 35W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 07N between 35W-51W. GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure at 1019 mb is centered in the northeast Gulf near 27N86W. A pronounced surface trough is analyzed in the western Gulf from 26N93W to 20N96W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible within the vicinity of the trough. A cold front extends from the Georgia/Florida border to across the Florida panhandle where it continues west-northwest. A 1013 mb low pressure is over coastal Texas near 28N97W. A stationary front extends southeast-south into the west-central Gulf near 22N97W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible near the front, mainly within 60 nm of shore and inland, from the Florida Panhandle westward. Also, patchy to areas of smoke remain possible from the Yucatan Peninsula to across the southwest Gulf due to ongoing agricultural fires over portions of Central America and Mexico. This smoke and associated haze may occasionally reduce visibilities. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds and seas of 3 ft or less are noted near the high center, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere east of the trough along with seas of 3-6 ft, locally to 7 ft. Moderate to fresh winds are noted west of the surface trough to the coast of eastern Mexico. For the forecast, a frontal boundary will remain over the western Gulf through Sat, then move northward as a warm front late Sat into Sun. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected near the front. Areas of smoke and haze are possible in the southwest Gulf from agricultural fires in southern Mexico. Fresh southerly return flow will prevail early next week over much of the basin. CARIBBEAN SEA... High pressure ridging remains north of the basin with 1012 mb low pressure near the border of northern Colombia/Venezuela. A surface trough is analyzed from just east-southeast of the Anegada Passage southwest to 11N67W. Isolated to scattered showers are possible across the eastern Caribbean with mid-to-upper level southwesterly flow advecting plentiful moisture from the deep tropics to across the area. Patchy to areas of smoke are possible in the northwest Caribbean including the Gulf of Honduras due to ongoing agricultural fires over portions of Central America. This smoke and associated haze may reduce visibilities. Mainly gentle to moderate trades prevail across the basin, locally fresh from 15N-18N. Seas are 2-4 ft in the eastern Caribbean, and mainly 3-6 ft elsewhere across the basin, locally to 7 ft south of Hispaniola and near the Gulf of Honduras. For the forecast, fresh E-SE winds will prevail in the Gulf of Honduras through Sun. Then, winds will increase to fresh to strong Sun night through Wed night as the pressure gradient tightens between the Atlantic ridge and lower pressures over the Gulf of Mexico. Gentle to moderate winds will continue elsewhere across the basin through Sun, becoming moderate to fresh across most of the Caribbean early next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... High pressure near 28N62W extends southwest-west to across south Florida. Earlier scatterometer data indicated a trough from near 31N77W to near Jupiter, Florida with scattered showers ahead of it. A cold front is just west-northwest of the area from near coastal Georgia to across the Florida Panhandle. Moderate to fresh SW winds are noted north of 27N and west of 65W, locally fresh to strong along 31N. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds prevail from 22N-27N, with moderate trades south of 22N. Seas are in the 3-6 ft range west of 65W to the Bahamas, highest north of 27N and south of 22N. To the east, 1022 mb high pressure is located near 30N44W. A ridge axis extends from 29N45W through the high to 27N65W. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds prevail north of 24N. with moderate to locally fresh trades south of 24N across the open waters of the central and eastern tropical Atlantic. Seas are in the 3-6 ft range across this same area. For the forecast for the waters west of 65W, the next cold front will enter the waters to the east of northern Florida late tonight into early Sat, then shift east of the forecast area and weaken on Sun. Fresh winds are expected in the vicinity of the front on Sat. In the wake of the front, high pressure will persist east of the area early next week, leading to moderate southerly winds east of Florida. $$ Lewitsky