000 AXNT20 KNHC 282305 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Thu Apr 29 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2210 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 08N13W to 03N22W. The ITCZ continues from 03N22W to 02N30W to 03N44W to 02N51W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 01N-05N between 19W-29W, and from 00N-04N between 29W-35W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N-10N between 35W-39W, and from 01N-07N between 39W-48W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1021 mb high is centered over coastal Georgia with a ridge axis extending westward just inland of the northern Gulf of Mexico. Moderate to fresh SE flow and seas in the 3-5 ft range dominate the waters east of 90W, with fresh to locally strong SE-S flow and seas in the 5-8 ft range west of 90W. A large area of haze and some smoke continues in the southwest and west-central Gulf due to agricultural fires in southern Mexico. In the near coastal waters of the southwest gulf, low-level visibility may be reduced at times due to the smoke. For the forecast, fresh to strong southeast winds and building over the western Gulf will continue through tonight as low pressure deepens over southwestern Texas. The associated cold front will move to just offshore the Texas coast Thu evening, and slowly move across the NW Gulf through Fri. It will reach from west-central Florida to the central Gulf and to the Bay of Campeche by early Sat and become stationary. The front will lift back to the north as a warm front through Sun, except over the western Gulf it will weaken and dissipate by late Sun. Fresh to strong northerly winds surge southward behind the front W of 96W and S of 25N Fri and Fri night. The high pressure will remain in place Mon and Mon night. Southerly flow will increase over the far western Gulf Sun through Mon night. Areas of smoke over the SW Gulf are due to agricultural fires in southern Mexico. These conditions are expected to continue through at least the end of the week, while hazy conditions will remain over the west-central Gulf and eastern Bay of Campeche. Visibility may be reduced in the southwest Gulf, especially near the coast. CARIBBEAN SEA... High pressure is north of the basin near Bermuda with mainly moderate to locally fresh trades across the waters, except fresh to strong near the Windward Passage due to a locally tight pressure gradient. Seas are 3 ft or less in the eastern Caribbean, 4-6 ft in the central Caribbean, and 3-5 ft in the western Caribbean. An area of active convection prevails over northern Colombia and Venezuela, with a few showers and thunderstorms also noted near the A-B-C Islands and southern Windward Islands. For the forecast, fresh to occasionally strong E to SE winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras through Thu night as a cold front moves into the Gulf of Mexico. Gentle to moderate winds will continue elsewhere across the basin through Sun, then increase to fresh speeds late Sun through Mon night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Surface ridging prevails across the west Atlantic, anchored by a 1024 mb high centered just W-NW of Bermuda. A dissipating stationary front extends across the central Atlantic from 32N51W to 20N66W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted within 60-120 nm on either side of the front, mainly south of 23N and extending across Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands. Moderate to fresh NE-E winds are noted west of the front, except gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow north of 27N. Seas are 4-7 ft west of the front and south of 27N, and 3-5 ft north of 27N. Low pressure of 1011 mb is over the eastern Atlantic near 30N25W with a trailing trough to 22N33W. Scattered showers are noted north of 22N and east of the front to 20W. Broad ridging prevails across the rest of the central and eastern tropical Atlantic, with moderate to locally fresh trades south of 20N, and gentle to moderate winds north of 20N. Seas are in the 4-7 ft range across these same areas. For the forecast, the stationary front over the far southeastern waters will completely dissipate through Fri. Relatively weak high pressure over the area will change little through the period. Southerly winds will begin to increase over the northwest waters late Thu in advance of an approaching cold front. This cold front is expected to move over that part of the area late Fri into Sat, and across the waters N and NE of the Bahamas through Sun night as it weakens. High pressure will build over the area in the wake of this front through Mon night. $$ Lewitsky