000 AXNT20 KNHC 271653 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Tue Apr 27 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1600 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W and continues southwestward to 05N17W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 03N36W. A break in the ITCZ occurs with a trough from 05N38W to 01N41W. The ITCZ resumes from 03N43W to the coast of Brazil near 03N51W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection exists south of 05N east of 10W. Isolated moderate convection is noted from 00N to 06N between 30W and 40W. GULF OF MEXICO... A ridge of high pressure extends over the southeastern United States promoting E to SE gentle to moderate winds over the Gulf this morning. Seas are small, generally 3-4 ft across the Gulf. No significant deep convection is present, though scattered showers are occurring within 120 NM of the Texas and NE Mexico coasts. Additionally, some haze is noted in the SW and W Central Gulf due to agricultural and forest fires occurring in Mexico. Fresh to strong SE winds and building seas of 8 to 9 ft are expected across the western Gulf tonight through Thu morning ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter the Gulf waters on Thu. Gale conditions are possible behind the front over SW Gulf, including the Veracruz area, and in the eastern Bay of Campeche on Fri. CARIBBEAN SEA... A moderate north-south pressure gradient from a 1025 mb Bermuda High near 33N74W and lower pressure over Colombia and Venezuela are contributing to generally gentle to moderate NE to E trades across the Caribbean. The exception is fresh to strong NE winds just north of Colombia. Seas are generally 3-5 ft across the Caribbean, except 6-8 ft just north of Colombia. No significant deep convection is noted over the Caribbean this morning, typical of April conditions. Scattered showers are present just south of Hispaniola and adjacent to the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. Fresh to strong NE to E winds are expected near the coast of Colombia tonight. Thereafter, mainly moderate to locally fresh trade winds will prevail through Fri. Similar wind speeds are forecast in the Gulf of Honduras Wed night through Fri as a cold front moves across the Gulf of Mexico. Fresh to locally strong northeast winds are also expected in the Windward Passage and south of the Dominican Republic tonight through early Thu as high pressure builds over the western Atlantic. ATLANTIC OCEAN... West of 65W: A cold front extends from 32N57W to 27N65W, where it transitions to a stationary front to 24N74W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 23N to 32N between 55W and 62W ahead of the front. Winds northwest of the front are NE to E moderate to fresh, while southeast of the front winds are gentle or weaker. Seas are 4-6 ft northwest of the front and slightly less southeast of the front. The cold will shift eastward while weakening today. High pressure in the wake of the front will dominate the forecast waters through Fri. The next cold front is forecast to move off the northeast Florida coast by Fri night. Fresh to locally strong southerly winds are expected ahead of the front over the waters N of 27N and W of 77W beginning on Thu night. East of 65W: A cold front extends from 32N31W to 28N31W, where it transitions to a trough to 25N44W. Scattered showers are present within 120 NM east of the front. A moderate north-south pressure gradient is supporting gentle to fresh NE to E trades across the Atlantic north of the ITCZ. Seas are generally 5-7 ft, mainly due to NW to N swell. Little change in winds or seas are anticipated for the next few days. $$ Landsea/Rivera-Acevedo