000 AXNT20 KNHC 270559 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Tue Apr 27 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0540 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea near 10N14W, to 05N18W. The ITCZ continues from 05N18W, to 04N23W to 03N33W. A surface trough is along 05N37W 02N40W, to the Equator along 43W. Precipitation: numerous strong is in the coastal plains and coastal waters of Brazil and French Guiana from 03N to 06N between 49W and 53W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 03N southward between 05W and 22W, and from 02N to 06N between 20W and 46W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge extends from an Atlantic Ocean 1022 mb high pressure center that is near 32N78W, through the northern sections of Florida, to SE Louisiana, to the upper Texas Gulf of Mexico coast, to the Deep South of Texas. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the entire Gulf of Mexico. No significant deep convective precipitation is apparent in satellite imagery. Smoke from ongoing agricultural and forest fires over Mexico and Guatemala is spreading across portions of the southwest Gulf, mainly south of 26N and west of 90W. It is limiting visibility in some areas of the southwest Gulf per latest nearby surface observations. A ridge dominates the Gulf waters producing gentle to moderate E to SE winds. Fresh to strong SE winds are expected across the western Gulf Tue night through Thu morning ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter the Gulf waters on Thu. Gale conditions are possible behind the front over SW Gulf, including the Veracruz area, and in the eastern Bay of Campeche on Fri. CARIBBEAN SEA... Comparatively drier air in subsidence is covering the northwestern three-fourths of the Caribbean Sea. An upper level trough extends from Bermuda, to Hispaniola, to the northern sections of Colombia. The monsoon trough is along 09N75W in Colombia, through the southern sections of Panama, beyond 08N84W, and into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong in clusters is in Colombia and the NW sections of Venezuela near the Lake Maracaibo, from 04N to 09N between 72W in NW Venezuela and 79W. Broken to overcast low level clouds, and isolated moderate rainshowers, cover the rest of the Caribbean Sea. The clouds and isolated moderate precipitation are moving with the surface-to- low level wind flow. The comparatively greatest concentration of clouds and possible precipitation is from 14N northward from 72W eastward. Fresh to strong NE to E winds are expected near the coast of Colombia tonight, and again Tue night. Thereafter, mainly moderate to locally fresh trade winds will prevail through Fri. Similar wind speeds are forecast in the Gulf of Honduras Wed night through Fri as a cold front moves across the Gulf of Mexico. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The first cold front passes through 32N60W, to 30N62W, to 25N70W, across the central Bahamas, to 24N79W in the Straits of Florida. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong is within 300 nm to the east and to the southeast of the cold front, from 22N northward. A surface ridge extends from an Atlantic Ocean 1022 mb high pressure center that is near 32N78W, through the northern sections of Florida, toward SE Louisiana. The second cold front passes through 32N33W to 31N34W. The cold front is dissipating from 31N34W to 26N40W and 26N48W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong covers the Atlantic Ocean from 23N northward between 25W and 50W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean to the north and northwest of the cold front/dissipating cold front. A cold front extending from 31N60W to the central Bahamas will shift eastward and weaken on Tue. High pressure in the wake of the front will dominate the forecast waters through Fri. The next cold front is forecast to move off the northeast Florida coast by Fri evening. $$ MT/GR