000 AXNT20 KNHC 250527 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sun Apr 25 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border sections of Guinea and Sierra Leone near 09N13W, to 06N15W, to 03N20W, and to 02N26W. The ITCZ continues from 02N26W, to the Equator along 37W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is from 06N southward between 13W and 23W. Scattered to numerous strong is from 04N northward to the coast of Africa between 04W and 06W, and from 03N southward between 03W and 06W. Scattered moderate to strong is from 04N to 06N between 41W and 46W. Isolated moderate is elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front has reached the NW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, from the coastal sections of south central Louisiana, to the middle Texas Gulf coast. No significant deep convective precipitation is apparent in satellite imagery. A 1005 mb low pressure center is near 20N95W in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. A surface trough extends from the 1005 mb low pressure center, to 24N94W and to 29N91W. Precipitation: isolated moderate is from 22N southward from between the surface trough and Mexico. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds cover the waters from 23N to 27N from 84W westward. Rainshowers are possible in this area of cloudiness. Smoke, from agricultural fires in southern Mexico, has been apparent in satellite imagery, causing hazy sky conditions and possibly lower visibilities, as far as the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. It is possible that smoke may be dense in some parts of the central Gulf of Mexico. Hazy sky conditions are possible in most of the western Gulf of Mexico for the remainder of the weekend. A cold front has entered the NW Gulf of Mexico, and it will move eastward across the basin through Sunday. Fresh northerly winds are expected in the wake of the front, through Sunday morning. Hazy sky conditions, from fires in southern Mexico, are possible across most of the western Gulf of Mexico for the remainder of the weekend. Fresh to strong SE to S winds are expected in the western Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday and Wednesday night, in advance of the next cold front, that is forecast to reach the Gulf of Mexico on Thursday. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level anticyclonic circulation center is in southern coastal Guatemala. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers much of the Caribbean Sea, except for the southeastern corner of the area. An upper level trough moves from the Atlantic Ocean, across the SE Caribbean Sea islands, toward the eastern half of Venezuela. The GFS model for 500 mb shows a 17N74W anticyclonic circulation center, and broad anticyclonic wind flow everywhere in the Caribbean Sea. Broad cyclonic wind flow covers Central America from Costa Rica southward. The GFS model for 700 mb shows: a NE Nicaragua cyclonic circulation center. A trough extends from NE Nicaragua to 15N64W. The monsoon trough is along 11N73W in northern Colombia, through the eastern sections of Panama near 08N78W, beyond 08N84W, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is along 10N between 73W and 74W. Scattered to numerous strong is in southern Colombia, from the Equator southward between 71W and 73W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is elsewhere in Colombia. Broken to overcast low level clouds, and isolated moderate rainshowers, cover the rest of the Caribbean Sea. The clouds and isolated moderate precipitation are moving with the surface-to- low level wind flow. Fresh to strong NE to E winds are expected in the south central Caribbean Sea through Sunday night, then mainly moderate to fresh winds will prevail. Fresh to strong winds in the Gulf of Honduras will diminish on Sunday, and they may return on Wednesday night and Thursday, as a cold front moves across the Gulf of Mexico. Fresh to strong winds also are expected in the lee of the Greater Antilles and the Windward Passage, by midweek, as high pressure builds in the western Atlantic Ocean. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front passes through 32N48W, to 31N50W. A surface trough continues from 31N50W to 27N60W. Precipitation: Widely scattered to scattered moderate, and isolated strong, are within 150 nm to the east and southeast of the cold front, from 28N52W northeastward. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers are within 120 nm to the northwest of the surface trough, and within 60 nm to the southeast of the surface trough. A 1024 mb high pressure center is near 32N58W. Broad anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from the cold front westward and northwestward. A surface ridge extends from the 1024 mb high pressure center, to 31N70W, and to Lake Okeechobee in southern Florida. A 1024 mb high pressure center is near 30N38W. Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean, from 13N northward to the east of the cold front/surface trough. Fresh to strong southerly winds have developed off the coast of Florida, and they will continue overnight. A cold front will move to the east of northern Florida early on Sunday morning. The cold front will weaken as it moves to the NE of the Bahamas through Monday night. The wind speeds will diminish as the front moves across the area. Scattered rainshowers and strong thunderstorms are possible to the east of the front. $$ mt/gr