000 AXNT20 KNHC 242122 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sat Apr 24 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2120 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic ocean through the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 02N25W. The ITCZ continues from 02N25W to 02N30W to 00N45W near the coast of Brazil. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 01N-05N between 07W- 11W. Scattered moderate from 02N-05N between 20W-35W, and from 00N-04N between 42W-47W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1005 mb low pressure center is over the southwest Gulf off the coast of Veracruz near 21N96W. A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicated moderate to fresh NW winds between the low pressure and the coast near Tampico. Elsewhere, a broad ridge extends from the western Atlantic to the northwest Gulf. Fresh SW winds are evident over the northeast and north-central Gulf, between the ridge axis and a frontal boundary just inland. Seas are 5 to 8 ft in this area, as noted in recent altimeter satellite data and buoy observations. Mostly moderate southerly winds are noted elsewhere. Seas are 5 to 7 ft elsewhere. A large plume of smoke from agricultural fires in southern Mexico is noted in satellite imagery causing hazy sky conditions and possibly lower visibility as far as the northeast Gulf. Smoke may be dense over portions of the central Gulf. For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will prevail across the Gulf through tonight. A cold front will enter the NW Gulf this evening and push eastward across the basin through Sun with winds diminishing behind the front. Showers and thunderstorms can be expected across the north- central Gulf through tonight. Hazy sky conditions from fires in southern Mexico are possible across most of the western Gulf of Mexico this weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... A mid-upper level anticyclonic ridge aloft across the northern Caribbean Sea is maintaining fairly dry conditions across the basin. Scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong trade winds off Colombia and over the northwest Caribbean from the central coast of Honduras to northern Belize and southern Quintana Roo. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trade winds are noted in the eastern and central Caribbean with gentle to moderate SE winds south of Cuba, with 4 to 6 ft seas. No significant shower or thunderstorm activity is observed across the basin. For the forecast, the fresh to strong winds in the central Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras will diminish on Sun as high pressure in the Atlantic shifts eastward. A small area of fresh to strong winds will persist near the coast of Colombia through early next week. Fresh to strong winds will develop in the lee of the Greater Antilles by midweek. Fresh to strong winds could return to the Gulf of Honduras later in the week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A ridge extends from 1024 mb high pressure is centered near Bermuda to central Florida. Fresh to strong southerly winds are evident off northeast Florida, between the ridge and an area of lower pressure over the southeast United States. A few showers and thunderstorms are evident in a line from near Jacksonville to 32N79W. Mostly moderate E to SE winds are noted elsewhere west of 65W, with fresh winds evident along the north coast of Hispaniola. Seas are 5 to 7 ft in open waters. Another 1024 mb high pressure area is centered near 31N37W. A cold front is analyze between the two high pressure areas from 32N50W to 27N60W. Farther east, a deep low pressure area between Portugal and the Azores is supporting fresh to strong NW winds north of 28N and east of 30W, with 8 to 12 ft seas in NW swell north of 18N. Elsewhere mostly moderate trade winds and 6 to 8 ft seas are noted south of 20N, and gentle to moderate winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are evident north of 20N. For the forecast for the waters west of 65W, the fresh to strong southerly winds off the coast of Florida and will continue overnight. A cold front will move east of northern Florida early Sun morning, then weaken as it moves NE of the Bahamas through Mon night. Winds will diminish as the front moves across the area. Scattered showers and strong thunderstorms are possible east of the front. $$ Christensen