381 
AXNT20 KNHC 241743
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sat Apr 24 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1700 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic ocean through the coast 
of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 04N20W. The ITCZ continues from 
04N20W to 02N30W to 00N44W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 02N-05N between 05W-24W. Similar convection is observed from
00N-06N between 25W-34W. 

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1008 mb low pressure center is over the SW Gulf near 21N97W. A 
surface trough extends northeast from the low to 26N93W. Recent 
buoy and platform observations along with scatterometer data 
indicate fresh to strong SE winds in the eastern and central Gulf
of Mexico with gentle SW winds in the northwestern Gulf. Gentle 
N-NE winds are over the SW Gulf, west of the trough. Seas are 5-8 
ft across the basin except east of 85W, seas are mainly 5 ft. 
Smoke from agricultural fires in southern Mexico is noted in 
satellite imagery, causing hazy sky conditions and low visibility 
over much of the southwest Gulf.

For the forecast, a cold front will enter the NW Gulf this 
evening and push eastward across the basin through Sun. Showers 
and thunderstorms can be expected across the north-central Gulf 
through tonight. Hazy sky conditions from fires in southern Mexico
are possible across most of the western Gulf of Mexico this 
weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A mid-upper level anticyclonic ridge aloft across the northern 
Caribbean Sea is maintaining fairly dry conditions across the 
basin. Scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong trade winds off
Colombia and within the Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere, fresh trade 
winds are noted in the eastern and central Caribbean with moderate
SE winds south of Cuba and west of 80W. Seas are 6 to 7 ft in the
Gulf of Honduras and up to 8 ft within 90 mn of the NW coast of 
Colombia. Elsewhere, seas are 4-6 ft. 


For the forecast, the fresh to strong winds in the central 
Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras will diminish on Sun as high 
pressure in the Atlantic shifts eastward. A small area of fresh to
strong winds will persist near the coast of Colombia through 
early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

1025 mb high pressure is centered just southwest of Bermuda near 
31N66W allowing for moderate to fresh E winds to prevail west of 
60W. A cold front enters the discussion area near 32N50W to 
26N63W. Showers and thunderstorms are noted within 90 nm east of 
the front, north 30N. Winds behind the front are N moderate to 
fresh, with gentle to moderate easterlies ahead of the front. Seas
are mainly 4-6 ft north of 20N and west of 40W.

For the forecast west of 65W, scattered showers and strong 
thunderstorms are expected to move off the SE U.S. tonight ahead 
of a cold front that will move east of northern Florida on Sun 
morning. The front will weaken as it moves NE of the Bahamas 
through Mon night. Fresh to strong southerly winds will develop 
ahead of the front this afternoon. 

Gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow dominates the remainder of 
the eastern Atlantic due to a 1025 mb high pressure centered near
30N37W. Trade winds become fresh to locally strong south of 15N 
to the coast of South America and west of 35W with seas 6-8 ft. 
Seas north of 20N and east of 40W to the coast of Africa are 7-11 
ft. 

$$
Mora