000
AXNT20 KNHC 241025
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat Apr 24 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1000 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea 
and Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 03N21W. The ITCZ continues from 
03N21W to 00N34W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 
the 02N-05N between 13W-34W, and from 00N-06N between 42W-49W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Recent buoy and platform observations along with scatterometer 
satellite data indicate fresh to strong SE winds in the central 
and western Gulf of Mexico, between high pressure east of the 
Carolinas and low pressure across Texas. Seas are 6 to 7 ft over 
the central and western Gulf. Light to gentle breezes and 3 to 4 
ft seas are noted over the eastern Gulf. Smoke from agricultural 
fires in southern Mexico is noted on satellite imagery, causing 
hazy sky conditions affecting much of the southwest and west-
central Gulf.

For the forecast, fresh to strong southerly winds will prevail 
across the Gulf today, ahead of a cold front that will enter the 
NW Gulf this evening. The front will move east of the basin Sun 
night. Hazy sky conditions are likely to continue across most of 
the western Gulf of Mexico this weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An anticyclonic ridge aloft across the northern Caribbean Sea is 
maintaining fairly dry conditions across the basin. Fresh to 
strong trade winds are active off Colombia, and scatterometer 
data shows fresh to strong winds north of Honduras. Moderate to 
fresh trade winds are over the south-central and southeast 
Caribbean, and moderate trade winds elsewhere. Seas are 2 to 4 
ft in the northern Caribbean and mostly 4 to 6 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, the fresh to strong winds in the central 
Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras will diminish on Sun as high 
pressure in the Atlantic shifts eastward. A small area of fresh 
to strong winds will persist near the coast of Colombia through 
early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

1024 mb high pressure is centered between Bermuda and South 
Carolina near 32N71W. A cold front reaches from near 32N53W to 
26N65W. Isolated showers are noted within 90 nm east of the 
front north of 28N. Moderate NE winds and 6 to 7 ft seas are 
noted west of the front. Farther east, 1024 mb high pressure is 
centered near 32N39W, with a dissipating cold front reaching 
from Morocco through the Canary Islands to 23N21W. A surface 
trough is analyzed from 23N21W to 20N33W to 27N48W. Moderate to 
fresh NW winds along with 9 to 14 ft seas in NW swell are north 
of 15N west of the front to 35W. Moderate to locally fresh 
trades and 4 to 6 ft seas are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 65W, a cold front will move east of 
northern Florida on Sun, then weaken as it moves NE of the 
Bahamas through Mon night. Fresh to strong southerly winds will 
develop ahead of the front later today. Scattered showers and 
strong thunderstorms are possible east of the front.

$$
Mundell