000 AXNT20 KNHC 231746 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Fri Apr 23 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Fri Apr 23 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea near 09N13W to 03N22W. The ITCZ continues from 03N22W to 02N32W to the coast of Brazil near 00N46W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from the equator to 09N between 10W-20W. Similar convection is noted within 200 nm north of the ITCZ between 29W-39W. GULF OF MEXICO... As of 1500 UTC, a stationary front previously across the central Gulf of Mexico has lifted north as a warm front. The boundary now stretches from the Texas/Louisiana border to the central Gulf near 28N90W. High pressure centered over the southern U.S. is allowing for fresh E-SE winds over most of the basin with seas of 3-6 ft. The latest surface observations along the coast of Mexico show reduced visibility due to smoke from agricultural fires in southern Mexico affecting the adjacent waters in the SW Gulf, including along the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. The warm front is expected to lift north later today. Fresh to strong southeasterly winds will prevail across the Gulf today through Sat. Showers and thunderstorms are expected along the northern Gulf coast today through Saturday night. A cold front will enter the NW Gulf on Sat evening and continue progressing eastward through Sun, exiting the basin by Sun night. Light to gentle winds will prevail early next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... A mid-upper level anticyclonic ridge covers much of the Caribbean Sea, except for the southeastern corner of the area. An upper level trough extends from the Atlantic Ocean, across the central sections of the eastern Caribbean Sea, into eastern Venezuela. The ridge is allowing for deep layer dry air over most of the basin indicated by low level precipitable water and mid-level water vapor imagery, which is favoring fair weather conditions. The latest scatterometer data reveals fresh trades over the eastern and south-central Caribbean and with gentle to moderate winds in the north-central and northwest Caribbean. Locally fresh winds may be within the Gulf of Honduras. Seas are 3-5 ft across the basin except waters offshore of Colombia where seas are up to 10 ft. Fresh to strong winds in the central Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras will diminish this weekend as high pressure in the central Atlantic shifts eastward. A small area of fresh to strong winds will persist near the coast of Colombia through early next week. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will prevail through the weekend into early next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front enters the discussion area near 32N61W continuing southwest to the northern Bahamas near 26N78W. A pre-frontal trough stretches from 30N62W to 26N 72W. Moderate to fresh NE winds are behind the front. Scattered moderate convection is within 160 nm ahead of the front. A 1026 mb high pressure center is anchored near 31N40W allowing for gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow north of 20N. South of 20N, moderate to fresh trade winds prevail. Farther east, a cold front passes across the Canary Islands to 23N35W where the remainder of the front is dissipating to 27N46W. No significant weather is associated with this front. The cold front across the SW North Atlantic will dissipate later today. A cold front will move east of northern Florida on Sun morning, then weaken and move NE of the Bahamas through Mon night. Fresh to strong southerly winds will develop ahead of the front Sat and Sat night, then shift eastward over the northern waters through Sun night. Moderate to fresh winds can be expected behind the front. Scattered showers and strong thunderstorms are possible east of the front. $$ Mora