000 AXNT20 KNHC 230534 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Fri Apr 23 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0510 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea near 10N13W, to 05N17W. The ITCZ continues from 05N17W, to 03N20W 03N25W, crossing the Equator along 29W, to 04S36W near the coast of Brazil. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is from 04N to 07N between the coast of Africa and 25W, and from 03N to 05N between 27W and 30W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front passes through Florida just to the south of Lake Okeechobee, to 25N89W near the central Gulf of Mexico, beyond the middle Texas Gulf coast. Precipitation: Isolated moderate rainshowers are within 120 nm on either side of the stationary front. A stationary front, that extends across the basin from Fort Myers in Florida to southern Texas, will move northward as a warm front, from late tonight through Saturday. A cold front will enter the NW Gulf of Mexico on Saturday afternoon, and move across the rest of the Gulf of Mexico through Sunday evening. Fresh to strong southerly wind flow will set up in the western Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level anticyclonic circulation center is in Guatemala. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers much of the Caribbean Sea, except for the southeastern corner of the area. An upper level trough moves from the Atlantic Ocean, across the central sections of the eastern Caribbean Sea, toward the eastern half of Venezuela. The GFS model for 500 mb and for 700 mb shows: broad anticyclonic wind flow covers the northwestern half of the Caribbean Sea. Broad cyclonic wind flow, with an inverted trough, covers the southeastern half of the Caribbean Sea. The monsoon trough is along 11N73W in northern Colombia, through the eastern sections of Panama near 08N78W, beyond 08N84W, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated to widely scattered strong are in Colombia within 240 nm to the southeast of the monsoon trough. Broken to overcast low level clouds, and isolated moderate rain showers, cover the rest of the Caribbean Sea. The clouds and isolated moderate precipitation are moving with the surface-to- low level wind flow. Fresh to strong trade winds in the central Caribbean Sea will diminish slightly this weekend, as central Atlantic Ocean high pressure shifts eastward. A small area of fresh to strong winds will persist near the coast of Colombia for several days. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A dissipating stationary front is along 31N65W to 26N76W just to the east of the Bahamas. A stationary front is from 90 nm to 135 nm to the northwest of the dissipating front. The stationary front is along 31N67W, to 28N75W, to just to the south of Lake Okeechobee in Florida. Precipitation: Broken to overcast multilayered clouds are to the north of the line that runs from 32N50W, to 25N60W, and to 23N80W. Scattered moderate to widely scattered strong precipitation is within 180 nm to the southeast of the dissipating stationary front. It is possible that strong gusty winds and rough seas may be in some of the areas of the comparatively heavier and more intense precipitation. A cold front passes just to the east of the Madeira Archipelago, to 30N20W, 25N30W, 26N40W, 30N50W. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers, are within 120 nm on either side of the cold front. A pair of weak stationary fronts in the SW N Atlantic Ocean will merge overnight from 31N67W to the central Bahamas to the Straits of Florida. A strong cold front will move to the east of northern Florida early on Sunday, and across the waters that are to the NE of the Bahamas through late Monday night, while weakening. Fresh to strong southerly winds will develop in advance of the front on Saturday and Saturday night, and then shift eastward in the northern waters through Sunday night. Scattered rainshowers and isolated strong thunderstorms are expected ahead of the front. $$ mt/DM