000 AXNT20 KNHC 192339 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Mon Apr 19 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea near 10N14W to 07N16W to 04N20W. The ITCZ continues from 04N20W to the Equator along 29W, and continuing westward along the Equator to 34W. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 n mi of the boundaries between 18W and 34W. GULF OF MEXICO... A frontal boundary remains stalled from central Florida to the Bay of Campeche, and then inland across portions of eastern Mexico. A trough lies just ahead of the front over the southeastern Gulf. Showers and thunderstorms are mainly confined to the southeastern waters and over portions of south Florida. Despite the boundary, winds are not very strong due to a fairly weak pressure gradient across the area. The stationary front is expected to remain nearly stationary into mid-week. Thereafter, a reinforcing cooler and drier airmass should push the front across the far southeastern Gulf of Mexico by late week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Showers and thunderstorms are moving southward across the far northwestern Caribbean Sea waters ahead of the Gulf of Mexico front/trough. Similar activity is occurring over land across portions of Central America. Otherwise, generally tranquil conditions prevail across the remainder of the area supported by surface high pressure and dry air aloft. Trade winds are strongest across the central Caribbean, 20-25 kt, but are moderate elsewhere. The ridge to the north of the area is expected to strengthen and shift eastward, which should allow fresh to strong trades to continue across the south-central portions of the region during the next couple of days. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front and a couple of frontal waves lie across the western Atlantic and are producing a line of showers and thunderstorms extending from near Bermuda across the northwestern Bahamas to southern Florida. The remainder of the subtropical and tropical Atlantic, outside of the ITCZ/monsoon trough, look tranquil at the moment supported by surface ridging and dry/stable air. The frontal boundary will remain nearly stationary off the coast of northeastern Florida through Tuesday night as a ridge extends westward from the central Atlantic Ocean to the central Bahamas. The ridge will slide eastward on Wednesday, in response to a cold front that will move off the southeastern US coast. The front will reach from near 31N74W to south-central Florida on Wednesday night, and from near Bermuda to the Straits of Florida by late Thursday. The front is forecast to begin to stall along 25N through Friday night, as high pressure builds between northeastern Florida and Bermuda. $$ Cangialosi