000 AXNT20 KNHC 191006 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Mon Apr 19 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0945 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Eastern Caribbean Ashfall Advisory: An Ashfall Advisory is in effect for La Soufriere Volcano on St. Vincent near 13.3N 61.2W. A new eruption occurred Sunday, and a plume of ash spread over the eastern Caribbean from 13N to 14N between 61W and 63W. The volcano remains in a very active state, and additional eruptions and ash plumes are possible at any time. Mariners transiting the nearby waters should exercise caution and are encouraged to report volcanic ash to the National Hurricane Center by calling 305-229-4424. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of West Africa near 12N16W and continues southwestward to 04N23W. The ITCZ continues from 04N23W to 02N30W to 00N40W. Scattered moderate convection is from 02S-04N between 08W-14W. GULF OF MEXICO... A nearly stationary cold front stretches from near Tampa Bay, Florida, to 26N90W, to the western Bay of Campeche. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted across a fairly broad area of the eastern Gulf, from 23N to 28N, E of 89W. Fresh NE winds are occurring to the NW of this boundary, with an area of strong NW winds offshore Veracruz, Mexico. Seas in this region are 6-10 ft. Ahead of the front and within the Florida Straits, winds are SE moderate to fresh, while within the Yucatan Channel winds are fresh from the south. Seas ahead of the front and within the far northeast Gulf are 2-4 ft. A nearly stationary front is noted from near Tampa Bay, Florida, to 25N92W, to the western Bay of Campeche. Fresh to strong winds occurring west of this boundary across the southwest Gulf will continue to diminish today. This front will remain nearly stationary into mid week, before reinforcing cool and dry air pushes the front into the far southeast Gulf from mid to late week. CARIBBEAN SEA... An Ashfall Advisory is in effect for La Soufriere volcano on the island of St. Vincent. See the special features section above for details. Scattered moderate convection remains in the Gulf of Honduras, otherwise dry air is supporting fair weather conditions over the basin. A pressure gradient between lower pressure over Colombia and a surface high pressure over the central Atlantic extending into the northern Caribbean continues to support fresh to strong winds over the south-central basin with seas to 9 ft and moderate to locally fresh SE winds in the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate trade winds with seas to 7 ft are elsewhere. The ridge N of the area will shift east ahead of a weak front moving through the Gulf allowing trade winds to increase over mainly the south central Caribbean through mid week. Looking ahead, the trade winds will diminish by late week as the high pressure shifts eastward, although fresh to strong winds will persist off Colombia. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weak frontal boundary will remain nearly stationary off the coast of northeast Florida through the early part of the week, as a ridge extends westward from the central Atlantic through the central Bahamas. Broad gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow extends over the Atlantic north of 20N. South of 20N trades are moderate to fresh. Looking ahead, as the ridge shifts east by Wed, a slightly stronger frontal boundary will move off the southeast U.S. coast by Thu. This front will reach from near Bermuda to the Straits of Florida by Thu night, then start to stall along 25N through Fri night as high pressure builds between northeast Florida and Bermuda. $$ KONARIK