000 AXNT20 KNHC 130557 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Tue Apr 13 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Windward Islands Ashfall Advisory: An Ashfall Advisory has been issued, for La Soufriere Volcano, that is on the island of St. Vincent, near 13.3N 61.2W. The volcano currently is undergoing light emissions from its summit. It is possible that ash that was released earlier may be reaching the surface of the ocean, and low level visibility may be reduced. Mariners who are transiting the waters under the emitted ash advisory should exercise caution. Mariners who encounter volcanic ash or floating volcanic debris, are urged to report the observation to the National Hurricane Center, by calling 305-229-4424. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea near 10N14W, to 06N20W, to 02N29W. The ITCZ continues from 02N29W 01N33W, to 01N44W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is within 60 nm on either side of the monsoon trough between 17W and 29W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere, from 07N southward from 54W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico from 24N northward from 92W eastward. A 1015 mb high pressure center is near 28N86W. Weak high pressure has settled into the area. The high pressure will shift eastward through Wednesday, in response to an approaching cold front. The cold front will move across the northern Gulf on Wednesday night. The cold front will reach from north central Florida to southern Texas on Thursday, and become stationary and weaken through Friday night. Mainly moderate northeast to east winds will follow behind the front. A stronger cold front is expected to move into the NW Gulf of Mexico late on Friday night, and reach from north central Florida to the west central Gulf of Mexico by late Saturday. Fresh to strong northeast winds will follow behind this front. CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough is along 11N73W in northern Colombia, to the Colombia/Panama border, beyond 07N80W, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 240 nm to the south of the surface trough, and within 120 nm to the north of the surface trough, between 70W and NW Venezuela and 79W. Broken to overcast low-level clouds, and isolated moderate rainshowers, cover the rest of the Caribbean Sea. The clouds and isolated moderate precipitation are moving with the surface-to- low level wind flow. An Ashfall Advisory is in effect for La Soufriere Volcano on the island of St. Vincent near 13.3N 61.2W. Mariners who are transiting the waters under the emitted ash advisory should exercise caution. Moderate to fresh southeast winds will continue in the far northwestern Caribbean Sea through the period, except pulsing to strong speeds in the Gulf of Honduras. Generally moderate to fresh east winds, elsewhere, will change little during the period. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front passes through 32N68W, to 28N70W, across the Bahamas Islands near 24N76W, to the Straits of Florida near 24N84W off the coast of NW Cuba. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated to widely scattered moderate rainshowers, are to the north of the line that runs from 23N72W to 25N60W, beyond 32N49W. Rainshowers are possible from 25N southward between 74W and 81W. A surface trough is along 30W/31W, from 23N northward. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 27N to 30N between 20W and 25W. A 1017 mb high pressure center is near 23N36W. Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 13N northward between the 30W/31W surface trough and 56W. The current cold front extends from 31N68W to 25N74W, and to the coast of western Cuba. The front will reach from 26N65W to the eastern Dominican Republic early this evening; and move to the east of the forecast waters early on Wednesday, as weak high pressure builds behind it, and as another cold front approaches the far northwest waters. This second front will move across the water N and NE of the Bahamas, from late Wednesday night through Friday night, and become stationary along 28N in the western part of the area, on Saturday and Saturday night. Fresh to strong southwest winds are expected ahead of this front. Weak high pressure will build in the area in the wake of the front. $$ MT/Aguirre