804 
AXNT20 KNHC 091801
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Fri Apr 9 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
SW Atlantic Ashfall Advisory: The Soufrire St. Vincent Volcano 
erupted today at 1241 UTC. Volcanic ash may be reaching the 
surface north of 13N and east of 61W. Mariners should exercise 
caution and report volcanic ash or floating debris to the 
National Weather Service by calling 305-229-4424. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends southward from the coast of 
Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W to 05N20W. The ITCZ continues from 
05N20W to 02N33W to 04N47W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 00N-04N between 32W-42W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The latest scatterometer pass shows moderate to fresh southerly 
flow continuing across most of the basin. A stationary front 
stretches east-west across the lower Mississippi Valley and 
continuous moist southerly flow is allowing for the development of
thunderstorms north of 28N between 84W and 89W. Scattered 
thunderstorms will be possible across this area through much of 
today. Seas are up to 6 ft in the northeast Gulf, with heights of 
3-4 ft elsewhere. 

Fresh southerly winds will prevail across most of
the basin through Sat. A weak cold front will move into the NW
Gulf on Sat, then stall and weaken from the Florida panhandle to
northern Mexico Sun night. Widespread showers and thunderstorms
associated with the front are possible in the NE Gulf this
weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scatterometer data from this morning indicates moderate to fresh 
trades prevail across the central Caribbean, with NE winds in 
the eastern basin and Windward Passage and SE winds in the 
northwest basin. Locally strong SE winds within the Gulf of 
Honduras, as well as locally strong NE winds within 90 nm of the 
coast of Colombia and east of 76W. A surface trough is analyzed 
across Colombia and Panama and into the eastern Pacific. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms occurring along this boundary 
are affecting the southwest Caribbean. Seas are 3-5 ft across the 
basin.

Weak high pressure centered east of the Bahamas will
gradually shift eastward through Mon. Fresh SE winds are
expected across the NW Caribbean this weekend. Fresh E winds and
seas to 9 ft are expected across the central Caribbean through 
Sun.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An ashfall advisory is in effect for the SW Atlantic north of 
13N and east of 61W. Please see the Special Features section for 
more details.

1021 mb high pressure is centered east of the NW Bahamas near 
27N74W. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds prevail around the 
high, north of 22N and west of 67W. The cold front in the central 
Atlantic stretching from 32N40W to 26N46W is beginning to lift 
north and dissipate. Scatterometer data notes strong W winds west 
of the front and north of 25.5N, becoming NW between 55W to 65W. 
Scatterometer data also notes a surface trough south of the front 
stretching from 23N45W to 18N56W. Scattered moderate convection is
ahead of these features north of 21N and west of 30W. Farther 
east, a 1019 mb high pressure is centered just southwest of the 
Canary Islands allowing for light to gentle anticyclonic flow over
waters north of 15N. Seas north of 23N between 40W and 65W are 
9-14 ft, with 5-7 ft seas elsewhere.

Weak high pressure centered east of the Bahamas will
gradually shift eastward through Mon. Fresh winds and seas to 
9 ft are expected this weekend as a front approaches the western
Atlantic. The cold front will move E of northern Florida on Mon,
and extend from 30N65W to 23N78W on Tue.


$$
Mora