000 AXNT20 KNHC 081744 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Thu Apr 8 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0740 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 07N12W to 05N17W. The ITCZ continues from 05N17W to 03N35W to 02N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted 260 nm south of the monsoon trough and ITCZ between 10W-25W, and from the Equator to 06N between 31W to the coast of Brazil to 50W. GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure centered northeast of the central Bahamas extends westward into the northeast Gulf. Moderate to locally fresh return flow prevails across the basin, except under the high, and in the western Gulf where the pressure gradient is slightly weaker. Seas are 3 ft or less in the eastern Gulf, and 3-5 ft in the central and western Gulf. AS of 1500 UTC, a cold front is inching its way from eastern Texas to across the lower Mississippi Valley with an intense line of showers and strong thunderstorms ahead of it, currently extending to just inland of the northern Gulf coastline Pensacola, Florida near 30N86W to 27N91W. Areas of fog near the coast of southern Texas coastal waters have diminished. High pressure will gradually shift eastward as a cold front slowly moves through the Lower Mississippi Valley, then stalls over the northern Gulf by the weekend. Mainly moderate to fresh return flow will prevail through the remainder of the week, increasing to fresh to locally strong Fri night into Sat ahead of the front. The stalled front is expected to linger over the northern Gulf into early next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Broad mid to upper level south-southwest flow covers the basin which is advecting moisture across the region from the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean. A surface trough extends from the eastern Pacific Ocean to south of the Gulf of Panama to across northern Colombia with clusters of scattered to numerous showers and Strong thunderstorms over central and northern Colombia. This Convection has frequent lightning with heavy rainfall also possible. High pressure is located north of the basin. A fairly weak pressure pattern prevails across the region with winds locally to fresh in the lee of central and eastern Cuba, across the Windward Passage, south of Hispaniola, and north of northern Colombia. Mainly gentle to moderate trades prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 2-4 ft range in the northwest and eastern Caribbean, and 3-5 ft in the central Caribbean, locally to 6 ft. High pressure north of the basin will gradually shift eastward through early next week. Fresh to strong E to SE winds and building seas will develop by Fri night across the northwest Caribbean from the Gulf of Honduras through the Yucatan Channel. Elsewhere, fresh to locally strong trade winds will develop over the south-central Caribbean and south of Hispaniola this weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A broad gale force low pressure system is located north of the discussion waters and well northeast of Bermuda with associated fresh to strong winds extending southward to 27N between 47W-68W as seen in the scatterometer this morning. A cold front wraps around the low and into the area through 31N44W to 23N62W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible within 60n nm ahead of the front with higher gusts in any convection. Large NW-N swell with seas in the 8-15 ft range covers the waters from roughly north of 26N between 46W-69W, highest seas up to 17 ft north of 30N indicated by the recent altimeter. An elongated trough is located east of the front, from 26N41W to 16N64W to the vicinity of Puerto Rico. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are ahead of the trough north of 21N and E of 44W, while scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are extending from near Puerto Rico east-northeast within 300 nm on either side of the trough and west of 50W. High pressure is centered in the eastern Atlantic near 25N25W with a ridge axis extending from near the Canary Islands to just east to 48W. Mainly gentle to moderate winds are south of the ridge axis, except for fresh to locally strong N-NE winds west of Africa to across the Cabo Verde Islands. Seas are in the 4-7 ft range across the central and eastern Atlantic outside of the influence of the low pressure system mentioned above. A trough will linger from the central Atlantic to near Puerto Rico today. Northerly swell will move through the waters east of 70W through this weekend. High pressure centered near 27N74W will gradually shift eastward through early next week. Winds and seas may increase offshore Florida this weekend ahead of a cold front that will move over the southeastern U.S. and eventually pass offshore early next week. $$ MTorres