000 AXNT20 KNHC 080800 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Thu Apr 8 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0750 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 10N14W to 04N18W. The ITCZ continues from 04N18W to 01N22W to 05N30W to 01N47W to 02N51W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 03N-04N between 11W-16W, from 01N-03N between 17W-22W, from 03N-05N between 23W-27W, and from 01N-05N between 31W-52W. GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure is in the northeast Gulf northwest-north of the Tampa Bay, Florida area. Moderate to locally fresh return flow prevails across the basin, except under the high, and also in the western Gulf where the pressure gradient is slightly weaker. Seas are 3 ft or less in the eastern Gulf, and 3-5 ft in the central and western Gulf. A cold front is inching its way from eastern Texas to across the lower Mississippi Valley with an intense line of showers and thunderstorms ahead of it, currently extending to just inland of the northern Gulf coastline. Areas of fog are reported in the southern Texas coastal waters. High pressure will gradually shift east as the cold front slowly moves through the Lower Mississippi Valley, stalling over the northern Gulf by the weekend. Mainly moderate to fresh return flow will prevail through the remainder of the week, increasing to fresh to locally strong Fri night into Sat ahead of the front, before diminishing late Sun with moderate easterly winds returning through early next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Broad mid to upper level south-southwest flow covers the basin which is advecting moisture across the region from the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean. A surface trough extends from the eastern Pacific Ocean to south of the Gulf of Panama to across northern Colombia with clusters of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over central and northern Colombia. This convection has frequent lightning with heavy rainfall also possible. High pressure is located north of the basin. A fairly weak pressure pattern prevails across the region with winds locally to fresh in the lee of central and eastern Cuba, across the Windward Passage, south of Hispaniola, and north of northern Colombia. Mainly gentle to moderate trades prevail elsewhere early this morning. Seas are in the 2-4 ft range in the northwest and eastern Caribbean, and 3-5 ft in the central Caribbean, locally to 6 ft. High pressure north of the basin will continue to support fresh winds and moderate seas in the lee of Cuba, and the Windward Passage through early today. As high pressure shifts east, winds and seas will begin to diminish over the area. By Fri night, fresh to strong E to SE winds and building seas will return across the central and northwest Caribbean from the Gulf of Honduras through the Yucatan Channel with fresh to strong NE to E winds and building seas develop south of Hispaniola. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A broad gale force low pressure system is located north of the discussion waters and well northeast of Bermuda with associated fresh to strong winds extending southward to 27N between 47W-66W early this morning. A cold front wraps around the low and into the area through 32N50W to 24N65W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible within 60-120 nm ahead of the front with higher gusts in any convection. Large NW-N swell with seas in the 8-15 ft range covers the waters from roughly north of 24N between 46W-69W, highest north of 30N. An elongated trough is located east of the front, from 32N41W to 22N50W to the vicinity of Puerto Rico. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are ahead of the trough, while scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are extending from near Puerto Rico east- northeast within 300 nm or so south of the trough and west of 50W. High pressure is centered in the eastern Atlantic near 25N29W with a ridge axis extending from near the Canary Islands through the high center to just east of the Virgin Islands. Mainly gentle to moderate winds are south of the ridge axis, except for fresh to locally strong N-NE winds west of Africa to across the Cabo Verde Islands. Seas are in the 4-7 ft range across the central and eastern Atlantic outside of the influence of the low pressure system mentioned above. The trough will linger in the Atlantic to just north of Puerto Rico today. Otherwise, high pressure east of the northern Bahamas will prevail. Winds and seas may increase east of Florida this weekend ahead of a cold front moving into the southeast U.S. with the front moving offshore early next week. $$ Lewitsky