000 AXNT20 KNHC 071708 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Wed Apr 7 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 11N15W to 06N20W. The ITCZ continues from 06N20W to 03N25W to the coast of Brazil near 00N51W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 04N-07N between 15W-20W. GULF OF MEXICO... Buoys, platforms, and land-based observations are showing moderate to fresh SE winds over the northwest Gulf and the coast of Texas, between 1020 mb high pressure centered over northern Florida, and 1005 mb low pressure centered over northeast Mexico and south Texas. Fresh SE flow is also noted over the central Gulf, with gentle to moderate SE flow elsewhere. Seas are 4 to 6 ft over the western Gulf, and 2 to 4 ft over the eastern Gulf. There some areas of haze reported earlier over the northwest Gulf, but visibilities are unrestricted currently. No significant shower or thunderstorm activity is noted anywhere in the Gulf at this time. For the forecast, the high pressure over Florida will gradually shift east as a cold front slowly moves through the Lower Mississippi Valley tonight, before stalling over the northern Gulf by the end of the week. Mainly moderate to fresh return flow will prevail through the week, increasing to fresh to locally strong Fri night into Sat ahead of the front, before diminishing late Sun with moderate easterly winds returning through early next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Recent scatterometer satellite data shows a small area of fresh trade winds off the coast of northeast Colombia, fresh NE winds in the Windward Passage, and gentle to moderate trade winds elsewhere. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in the eastern Caribbean, 5 to 7 ft in central Caribbean and Windward Passage, 4 to 6 ft in the Gulf of Honduras, but only 2 to 4 ft elsewhere in the northwest Caribbean. No significant shower activity is evident across the basin. For the forecast, high pressure north of the basin will continue to support fresh winds and moderate seas in the Windward Passage, and off Colombia through early Thu. As high pressure shifts east, winds and seas will begin to diminish across the basin. This pattern will support fresh to strong E to SE winds and building seas from the Gulf of Honduras through the Yucatan Channel by the end of the week into the weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... 1021 mb high pressure is centered just north of Grand Bahama Island is supporting light winds over the discussion waters west of 70W, with 2 to 4 ft seas in open waters. Farther east, a cold front moved south of Bermuda, as far south as 30N, between 60W and 70W. Recent scatterometer data shows strong to near-gale force winds north of 28N ahead of and following the front, between 50W and 65W. Seas are estimated to be 10 to 14 ft in this area, with 8 to 10 ft seas in NW swell north of 26N between 45W and 70W. Elsewhere over the north Atlantic south of 32N, a ridge extends from 1017 mb near 23N31W westward to 50W. This is supporting moderate trade winds south of 20N and light to gentle breezes north of 20N. Seas are 4 to 6 ft primarily in NW swell. For forecast covering the area west of 65W, winds and seas may increase east of Florida this weekend ahead of a cold front moving into the southeast U.S. $$ Christensen